Economic Analysis

Major achievements in 2003

The Economic Analysis Division aims to provide information and analysis that are helpful to a broad cross-section of policy makers and economists in government, research institutes and universities, as well as to the private business sector and the public at large. The general objective is to improve knowledge, stimulate the exchange of views and sharing of experience leading to greater mutual understanding and a reduction of conflicts between national policies.

The two issues of the Economic Survey of Europe produced in 2003 provided a review of current macroeconomic developments and an assessment of the short- run outlook in the UNECE region with special emphasis on Eastern Europe and CIS. The first issue of March 2003 also contained special studies on a number of current issues. The recent financial scandals at major United States corporations have highlighted the costs of corporate governance failures. Its relevance for the UNECE region was discussed in a study on 'Corporate governance in the UNECE region'. It goes without saying that the forthcoming EU enlargement will constitute a major challenge for UNECE. This year, UNECE has decided to concentrate on the non-acceding countries, specifically CIS, in order to study the economic implications of EU enlargement for these countries and the prospects for further economic integration within the UNECE region. Pursuant to that decision, special studies were conducted on: progress in systemic reforms in CIS; the impact of EU enlargement on non-candidate countries in Eastern Europe and CIS; international trade of CIS; changes in unemployment benefit systems in Eastern Europe and CIS and gender specific labour market adjustments in Eastern Europe and the Russian Federation. The studies concluded that the CIS countries faced important challenges in terms of enforcement of legal provisions, institution building, labour market adjustments, etc. However, EU enlargement will have a net positive impact on the non-acceding UNECE countries.

The second issue of the Economic Survey 2003 included the papers presented by two distinguished experts at the UNECE Spring Seminar held on 3 March 2003. As a follow-up to the August 2002 Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development, the topic of the Seminar was "Sustainable development in the UNECE region". The two sessions focused on: (i) the relationship between economic growth and the environment; and (ii) sectoral dimensions of sustainable development: energy and transport. Two major conclusions emerged from the sessions. First, democratic societies achieve better environmental outcomes than dictatorial regimes. Second, sustainable development in energy can be achieved more efficiently by targeted taxes on harmful pollutants associated with energy uses than by continued increases of the relative price of energy.

In early October 2003, the Division organized an informal seminar on "Policies for achieving the Millennium Development Goals in the UNECE region: Reducing extreme income disparities". The seminar was designed to constitute part of the UNECE contribution to the follow-up to the Millennium Summit and addressed some of the topical issues related to poverty reduction in the UNECE region, with main emphasis on Eastern Europe and CIS. The seminar benefited from the participation of experts from governments, research institutions and international organizations. Though poverty in the UNECE region in recent years has decreased on average, the seminar concluded that it was still a challenge to the European social model and its modernization. Stimulating pro-poor growth and reducing income inequality will require strengthening systems of public administration and finanial management, increasing transparency and political accountability and renewed emphasis on institution building and good governance.

Most of the Division's work on ageing, carried out by the Population Activities Unit (PAU), focused on establishing the modalities for the follow-up to the UNECE Ministerial Conference on Ageing (Berlin, September 2002). The centrepiece of the follow-up work will be a collaborative arrangement between UNECE and the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research in Vienna with funding from the Austrian Government. Separately, the United States National Institute on Ageing approved new funding for UNECE work in the field of ageing, and specifically for the work related to the PAU census microdata samples project over the period 2003-2007.

The work on the Generations and Gender Programme continued with the second Informal Working Group meeting in Prague in February 2003, which endorsed the work programme proposed by the Consortium Board. PAU was requested by the participating countries in transition to assist in the resource mobilization for their programmes.

At the request of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), PAU initiated activities to organize a population forum in early 2004. The Forum will be hosted by the Government of Switzerland in Geneva in January 2004, with active support from other regional institutions. Four themes, reflecting the relevant population concerns of policy makers, the scientific community, and the public at large in the region, will be discussed: global population and development trends; child-bearing and parenting in low-fertility countries; morbidity, mortality and reproductive health in countries in transition; and international migration.

Major challenges for 2004

With the upcoming EU enlargement, the new EU members will turn a page in their transformation while, on the other hand, the new geopolitical realities in Europe will pose new challenges for the economies both within and outside the enlarged EU. This will also present a new opportunity for UNECE and prompts consideration of a broad range of issues, in particular: the challenges and implications for nonacceding countries, and the prospects for further economic cooperation and integration within the UNECE region. In the context of this new phase of economic and political change, a major challenge remains to ensure that the Economic Survey makes relevant contributions to the discussion of economic issues important to UNECE member States. Against this background, the first issue of the Economic Survey 2004 will inter alia discuss the process of fiscal transition in EU acceding countries, with a focus on tax reforms and the implications of the EU fiscal policy framework. These issues are linked to the ambition of the acceding countries to join the euro zone. There will also be a special chapter dealing with poverty in the transition economies.

One of the major challenges facing the member States in the UNECE region is in finding ways to foster the competitiveness and growth of their economies as well as meeting the new challenges posed by the advance of the knowledge driven economy. Supportive public policy and efficient public institutions are important factors in shaping the competitiveness of nations and in accelerating economic development and growth. With an aim to identify some of the main tasks and responsibilities of the UNECE governments, the UNECE Spring Seminar 2004 will deal with the topic “The competitiveness of nations and economic growth in the UNECE Region”. Major issues to be discussed are factors promoting economic catch-up processes, the determinants of competitiveness in the knowledge-based economy, and the role of governments in fostering competitiveness and growth in the private sector.

A major component in the future work on the follow-up to the UNECE Ministerial Conference on Ageing will be the organization of a workshop on indicators for sustainable ageing. The workshop will be organized together with the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research and will be hosted by the Spanish Government. The work on the census microdata samples will be continued in collaboration with the Minnesota Population Center and other partner institutions.

In the framework of the Generations and Gender Programme, the third meeting of the Informal Working Group will take place in the spring of 2004 to review progress, especially the methodological instruments and proposals for resource mobilization.

The European Population Forum is scheduled for January 2004. It will be a joint UNECE-UNPFA event, convened as part of the observance of the 10th anniversary of the International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in 1994. It is expected that the Forum will review newly emerging population changes in the UNECE region, examine the challenges that they pose, such as the issue of combining motherhood and labour force participation, and identify best policy responses.