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European Forest Sector Outlook Study II, 2010-2030 (English, French and Russian language in preparation).

The European Forest Sector Outlook Study II (EFSOS II) is the latest in a series of studies, which started in 1952, to provide a regular outlook report for the European forest sector. All these studies have aimed to map out possible or likely future developments, on the basis of past trends, as a contribution to evidence-based policy formulation and decision making.

A reference scenario and four policy scenarios have been prepared for the European forest sector between 2010 and 2030, covering the forest resource and forest products. The scenarios are based on the results of several different modelling approaches, and in particular of econometric projections of production and consumption of forest products, the Wood Resource Balance, the European Forest Information Scenario model (EFISCEN), the European Forest Institute - Global Forest Sector Model (EFI-GTM), and competitiveness analysis.

The four policy scenarios (Maximising biomass carbon, Priority to biodiversity, Promoting wood  energy, Fostering innovation and competitiveness) help policy makers gain insights into the consequences of certain policy choices. These choices are assessed according to their sustainability and recommendations are proposed based on the trade-offs facing policy makers. Decision makers are encouraged to reflect upon these analyses and to consider them when taking possible future policy actions.

Econometric Modelling and Projections of Wood Products Demand, Supply and Trade in Europe

Econometric Modelling and Projections of Wood Products Demand, Supply and Trade in Europe (English)

The current study provides a description of an econometric analysis of the forest sector in Europe and how the resulting models - together with assumptions regarding economic growth and price and cost developments - are used to produce country specific projections of consumption, production and trade of wood products in two baseline scenarios. These scenarios are based on IPCC scenarios A1 and B2.


Swedish Forest Sector Outlook Study (English)

In this study, international trends and major drivers of change for forest resources and wood use are reviewed and, together with projections of future developments in the use and supply of wood resources as well as wood-product market developments in Europe for the period 2010 to 2030, analysed as to their impact on the Swedish forest sector. Demand is foreseen to vastly exceed the potential supply of woody biomass in Europe, putting a tremendous pressure on the Swedish forest resource and possibly necessitating trade-offs between different ecosystem services.  


Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in population, income and land use along with emerging technology and predicted changes to consumption patterns for wood products and bioenergy. Markets for wood products, which mainly are destined for the construction sector in North America, are projected to recover by 2015 under all three scenarios examined. Projections suggest that, in spite of declining use of paper for media, other paper and paperboard for packaging and miscellaneous uses will continue to enjoy strong global demand.


European Forest Outlook Study, 2000-2020 (English, French, Russian)

The European Forest Sector Outlook Study presents long term trends for supply and demand of forest products (roundwood, sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper, non-wood products) and services and outlook to 2020, in western and eastern Europe and four major CIS countries, including Russia. It reviews trends for the forest resource, trade, markets and recycling. It stresses the future shift in the balance of the sector to the east, and the importance of cross-sectoral issues, notably consequences for the forest sector of energy, environment and trade policies, which are examined in some detail.

The study is based on a major collaborative effort by experts in the countries covered by the study, under the auspices of the UNECE Timber Committee and the FAO European Forestry Commission.  The study identifies a number of major policy issues and proposes some policy recommendations, as a basis for future debate.

Supporting Papers for EFSOS (2000-2020)

European Forest Sector Outlook Study, Trends 2000-2005 Compared to the EFSOS Scenarios, by Fabian Schulmeyer