Introduction
Since 1953,
UNECE/FAO has been producing studies of the long-term outlook
for supply and demand for wood and the other goods and
services of the forest, as a support to policy makers
and analysts, as well as civil society and private sector
decision makers. |
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Reality check for EFSOS projections
The European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS) was based on data and projections made in 2000 with projections to 2020 (in 5-year intervals). Now that real data are available for 2005, it is possible to check them against the EFSOS scenarios, to see whether they are still a viable basis for policy making. A new ECE/FAO Discussion Paper (European Forest Sector Outlook Study: Trends 2000-2005 Compared to the EFSOS Scenarios), prepared by Fabian Schulmeyer, an intern with ECE/FAO Timber Section, supported by the German exchange scheme DAAD, systematically compares EFSOS projections with recorded outcomes. Reassuringly, it concludes that the scenarios, with the significant exception of those for wood energy, are mostly in line with real trends and may continue to be used as a basis for policy discussion. Work is in hand on the energy outlook and will be presented to the policy forum in October 2007. Download the entire publication or if you would like a hard-copy, send a request to info.timber@unece.org |