WPC%( tRzV#{m¬~YƏK lTs(I A˒'dюI-N<<.e\wÚ et՘.m¤F,$R;^z\C8WO8?l:S9q>5Y7e!}&NBN)Z~ΉETTиo'?]nspK? C RFb7c^T?rGI߮Sc2 HipulK9wl>H?{Aوer+4j5Oȓ} -K0G.ʈ92@$ nB^ a{"V@z'z30Wt)$q (M-G4<18- _錤 gA7_*dWIPB~߬OLt;WОc9R,GysQ):9WMx~:b9"# @UNK % 0*U>w@4G[nj 0F&D?.UFmfa 0FU> #? U>b!!a"#U>$#%U>>& h|&|&|& B''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' D3''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' iV'9730426FINAL !) ' "CES/AC.68/560Luu . 5  HP LaserJet IIIHPPCL5MS,,,,,,,,0 (9 Z 6Times New Roman RegularX($TRW 6&A4W 6&A46&A46&A4T+ }}X2XXX7X'X2  UKUS.,  <( 9Z &Courier Regular 6D6ӀӀ8A"㉋" ,x3|x d  0'+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,   +*Xrl0  * @vvvp##M  2  ڀM  E97S330426S1    CES/AC.68/56(30$ !TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }XXXXXX  UKUS.,    }b  0'+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  CES/AC.68/56  page  2   5 sr(+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  ! ++X!    CES/AC.68/56      page  2  + aZ.LinePrinter RegularTABLE A(3sr$ !TRW 6&A4W 6&A46&A46&A4T+ }}XXXX4XX  UKUS.,     0'+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  CES/AC.68/56  page  2  <( 9Z &Courier Regular  sr(+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  ! ++X!  CES/AC.68/56    page  2  <( 9Z &Courier Regular  0'+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  CES/AC.68/56  page  4  Annex1 W sr(+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  ! ++X!    CES/AC.68/56      page  4      Annex1  0'+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  CES/AC.68/56  page  4  <( 9Z &Courier Regular  sr(+ XXXX4XX  UKUS.,  ! ++X!  CES/AC.68/56    page  4  <( 9Z &Courier Regular Zd;?   !@   ? ? d!!!!'dxd!!!!!B:s0  !TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }XXXX4XX  UKUS.,   ݛb} +*X E  CES/AC.68/56 b   20March1997  ENGLISH  Original:RUSSIAN +*+*STATISTICALCOMMISSIONand  COMMISSIONOFTHEEUROPEAN X  ECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOREUROPE  COMMUNITIES(EUROSTAT)   CONFERENCEOFEUROPEANSTATISTICIANS  ORGANIZATIONFORECONOMIC H    COMOPERATIONANDDEVELOPMENTJointUNECE/Eurostat/OECD   MeetingonNationalAccounts `  (Paris,3M6June1997)Item1oftheprovisionalagenda  @ pMAJORPROBLEMSWITH1993SNAIMPLEMENTATION@B B pSubmittedbytheNationalStatisticalCommittee@$$ poftheKyrgyzRepublicGE.97M30426(E) `0(5  E}b  ќ  ֛$++X*X+*a$1.  Problemsinestimatinggrossdomesticproduct(GDP)    AstheNationalStatisticalCommitteeofKyrgyzstanembarkedoncompilingmacroeconomicindicatorsusingtheSystemofNationalAccountsin1993,effortswereimmediatelymadetofollowthe1993SNA.Substantialproblemshave,however,occurredduringtheintroductionoftheSystem.Thedevelopmentofnonpublicformsofownershipandofsmallandmediumsizedbusinessesandprivateentrepreneurshiphasraisedquestionsaboutthequality,accuracyandcompletenessofcoverageoftheactivitiesofeconomicentitiesinallsectorsoftheeconomy.  Anumberofproblemsarestillbeingexperiencedincompilingtheproductionaccount.Theseareconnectedwiththereformoftheaccountingsystem,sincetheexistingsystemremainsgearedtoaplannedeconomyratherthantoamarketeconomy.Thefirststepshavenowbeentakenintherepublictoapplyinternationalaccountingstandards.Anewschemeofaccountsforbanks,enterprisesandorganizationshasbeenintroduced,togetherwithanewbudgetclassification(forincomeandexpenditurewithintherepublic'sbudget).AproposednewlawbringingtheaccountingsystemintolinewithinternationalstandardsisunderconsiderationbytheParliamentoftherepublic.  Forthetimebeing,however,calculationsofthegrossoutputofsomeofthemainbranchesoftherepublic'seconomydonotfullyconformtotheSNA,sincetheyarebasednotongoodssoldbutongoodsactuallyproduced.Thebranchesconcernedincludeindustryasawholeandagriculture.Tradeismeasuredbythe"grossincome"indicator,andnotthroughpurchasesorsalesandchangesininventories.Thisisduetothecontinuinghighinflationandthelackofqualityinformationonchangesininventories.Theabsenceofahousingmarketmakesitdifficultatpresenttoestimateoutputfor"housingconstruction",andespeciallyprivatelyownedhousing,bymeansofrentalspaidunderalease(whicharenotequivalenttoexistingrentsforapartments),asrecommendedbythe1993SNA.  Amajorproblemisthatofreflectingtheconsumptionoffixedcapitalinordertoestimatethenetdomesticproduct,sincethecostofgoodsproducedincludesdepreciationoffixedcapitalcalculatedatbookvalue.Withthepresenthighratesofinflation,theproportionofthevaluewrittendowninthecourseofayearbearsnorelationtotheamountneededtoreplacethecapitalexpendedoverthesameperiod.Thus,simplydeductingthebookvaluefordepreciationoffixedcapitalfromgrossvalueaddedisinsufficientforthecalculation.Initialattemptshavethereforebeenmadetoestimatetheconsumptionoffixedcapitalusingasimplifiedversionofthecurrentreplacementcostmethod,buttheproblemasawholehasnotbeenresolved.  IncalculatingGDPbytheusemethod,extensiveuseismadeofdatafrombudgetsurveys,wherealongwithimprovingthequalityofdataforhouseholds,thereistheproblemoftherepresentativenessofthesample.Useisalsomadeofdataonretailtrade,themainweaknessherebeingthatgoodsacquiredbyprivateindividualsarenotdividedintogoodsacquiredforintermediateconsumption,forfinalconsumptionandforresale.  d,r'3   Problemsalsooccurwhenrecalculatingindicatorsatconstantprices. Withthedevelopmentofmarketservices(education,healthcare,etc.),thequestionarisesastowhetheritwouldbemorerealistictorecalculatethedataforthebranchbythemethodofdeflation,andnotbyextrapolation.  Thereisasubstantialproblem,too,withtheallocationoffinancialintermediationservicesindirectlymeasured(FISIM).Atpresent,whencomputingthestructureofgoodsandservicesinGDP,FISIMisallocatedinaccordancewiththe1968SNA,i.e.itisincludedinintermediateconsumptionofthefinancialsector.  Statisticalinformationispreparedbythecumulativemethod(asforallaccounting)andthisalsomakesitverydifficulttocalculatenetquarters.2.0  Exhaustivenessofnationalaccounts,hiddeneconomy,illegalactivities ##   Noadjustmentsweremadeforthe"greyeconomy"whencalculatingthenetmaterialproductduringtheperiodoftheplannedeconomy.Inthe1993SNA,however,itisrecommendedthattheSystemshouldbedesignedtotakeaccountofhidden,informalandillegalactivities.Forthispurpose,theNationalStatisticalCommitteehaspreparedtemporarymethodologicalrecommendationsforestimatingthesizeofthe"greyeconomy",whichreflectthemainlinesofactivityinthisarea.  Informalproductionincludesunincorporatedenterprisesownedbyhouseholds.Theseoperateforthemostpartonalegalbasisandwiththemainaimofproducinggoodsandservicestoprovideemploymentandincome.(Withregardtoagriculture,thehouseholdsectorisnotincludedintheinformalsector.)  HiddenproductionlargelyconsistsoflegalactivitieswhichareneverthelessconcealedorunderMreportedinordertoavoidthepaymentoftaxes,socialsecuritycontributions,etc.  Producerunitsclassifiedascriminalarethoseengagedintheillegalproductionorsaleofgoodsandservices(productionanddistributionofnarcotics,prostitution,etc.),aswellaseconomicentitiesnotauthorizedtoengageinaparticularkindofactivity.  Themethodologicalrecommendationsmakeitpossibletoestimateelementsofthe"greyeconomy"ontheproductionside.Theadjustmentsmadebybranchandsectoroftheeconomyareoutlinedinannex1.  Aseriousproblemfortherepublic'seconomyisposedbythewidespreadphenomenaoftheflowofcapitalabroadandofnonpaymentstoenterprises.TheseoperationsconstitutearedistributionofincomeandassetsanddonotinthemselvesaffectthesizeandstructureofGDP.However,theoutflowofcapital(illegaltransfersoffundstoforeignbankaccounts)isinsomecasesconnectedwithtransactionsinvolvingtheillegalexportofgoods,andthesedoinfluencethesizeandstructureofGDP.Nonpaymentsfrequentlyresultnotfromlackoffundsbutfromtheuseofmoneyincirculationtoobtainillegalincome.Detailedanalysisofthenatureofthesephenomenaisrequiredtoshedlightonelementsofthe"greyeconomy". *-8(4  R֛ RR֛R  Annex1  ESTIMATIONOFTHESHARESOFTHE GREYECONOMYIN1995 D GDPvolumefor1995M16,145.1millionsoms  4*}!*ddd Xdd Xdd X+#+#},dd ,dd ,Sdd-b,dd ,7dd-,dd%, dd +  /! \  /Branches S!B3 "!! SShareofbranchinGDP(%) I?0L  Uss!! I GreyeconomyshareinGDP B!1"  " !! BNotes J@5  "  !! J )  ! )Ј 5!$  ! 5Sector ;!*3 { "!! ;(%) ;!*3 {"!! ;millionϜsoms /% A"!! / J@   !  ?1.?J1. ND?S  ?1. ?! NIndustry MCS (@12.0(@M12.0 PFASU (@12.0 (@! PInformalMhouseholdsector OE' ! ?0.5?O0.5 qg@SU ?0.5 ?! U@84.4U@q84.4 PFASU U@84.4 U@! PSpecialmonthlysamplesurveys.Alloutputfromindividualproducers(lightindustry,foodindustry,printing,woodworking,etc.)ismonitored. KAk !  @2.@K2. ND?   @2. @! NConstruction LB  ffffff@6.1ffffff@L6.1 LB@ U ffffff@6.1 ffffff@! LHiddenMnonMfinancialsector MCQ#! ?0.05?M0.05 ndA $U ?0.05 ?! ffffff!@8.7ffffff!@n8.7 LB@ %U ffffff!@8.7 ffffff!@! LConstructionandrefurbishingofembassybuildings,buildingofplacesofworship,conversionofdwellingsforuseasoffices,shops,cafs,etc.Dataobtainedfromspecialsurveys.Constructionofindividualdwellingsnotincludedin grey /w- economy. KA=.!  @3.@K3. ND?O/  @3. @! NAgriculture MCO0 LD@40.6LD@M40.6 MCAO1U LD@40.6 LD@! M +!O2! +Ј +!O3U! +Ј +!O4U! +Estimatesaremadeindirectlybybranch,andhouseholdsectoroutputisthereforenottreatedaspartofthe greyeconomy. 8 Thisconstitutes37.3%ofGDP. KAg9!  @4.@K4. ND? :  @4. @! NTotal,goodsMproducingbranches MC< YM@58.7YM@M58.7 MCA =U YM@58.7 YM@! M MC >! ?0.55?M0.55 oeA ?U ?0.55 ?! fffffFW@93.1fffffFW@o93.1 MCA @U fffffFW@93.1 fffffFW@! MThegoodsMproducingbranchesinclude:industry,construction,agriculture,forestryandotherbranchesofthematerialsphere. KA!!E!  @5.@K5. ND?3#{F  @5. @! NTradeandpubliccatering MC#AH &@11.0&@M11.0 MCA3#{IU &@11.0 &@! MInformalMhouseholdsector LB$L! @5.2@L5.2 oe@3#{MU @5.2 @! 0@838.10@o838.1 NDB3#{NU 0@838.1 0@! NFromresultsofsamplesurveysoffood,nonMfoodandmixedmarketsandfromfamilybudgetsurveys. .$%R! . .$&'!S! . .$&'!T .Ј .$&'!UU! .HiddenMnonMfinancialsector OEk("X! @2.1@O2.1 rh@&'!YU @2.1 @! t@334.3t@r334.3 QGB&'!ZU t@334.3 t@! QUseismadeofdatafromoneMtimesurveyofretailtradeandpubliccateringnetwork. KAk("]!  @6.@K6. ND? d  @6. @! NTransport(goodsandpassengers) LBu * ffffff @3.3ffffff @L3.3 LB@ dU ffffff @3.3 ffffff @! LInformalMhouseholdsector LB; ! ?0.2?L0.2 nd@ dU ?0.2 ?! fffff&A@34.3fffff&A@n34.3 MCA d U fffff&A@34.3 fffff&A@! MSpecialsurveystoestimatepassengersandgoodscarried,averageoutputpervehicleandaveragenumberofvehiclesavailableingoodworkingorder. Surveyofrespondentsconductedquarterly. KAS!  @7.@K7. ND?b  @7. @! NFinanceandcredit LBb ?1.8?L1.8 LB@bU ?1.8 ?! LHiddenMfinancialsector LB9! ?0.2?L0.2 nd@bU ?0.2 ?! 33333;@27.733333;@n27.7 MCAbU 33333;@27.7 33333;@! MAdjustmentismadeforexchangebureauxandpawnbrokers.Forthispurpose,useismadeofdataavailablefornonMreportingenterprises:numberofpersonsemployedintheparticularsphere,ratioofwagesandsalariestoearnings,levelofprofitability.Thesefiguresaregrosseduptocoverallactiveentities. KAi#!   @8. @K8. ND?x$   @8.  @! NHealthcare,education,generalgovernment,cultureandarts,publicutilities LB) !@8.5!@LЈ̈̈̈8.5 LB@.U !@8.5 !@! LHiddenMnonMfinancialsector MCO1! ?0.05?M0.05 ndAx2U ?0.05 ?!  @8.4 @n8.4 LB@x3U  @8.4  @! LPaidservicestothepopulationareestimatedonthebasisofinformationonnonMreportingenterprisesandhouseholdbudgetsurveys. .$8! . .$59! . .$5: .Ј .$5;U! .InformalMhouseholdsector OEv>! ?0.1?O0.1 qg@5?U ?0.1 ?! 2@18.12@q18.1 PFA5@U 2@18.1 2@! P KA5A!  "@9."@K9. ND? B  "@9. "@! NTotalforbranchesproducingservices MC D A@34.0A@M34.0 MCA EU A@34.0 A@! M MC F! ffffff@7.85ffffff@M7.85 MCA GU ffffff@7.85 ffffff@! M qgAUGU ffffff@7.85 ffffff@! @1260.9@q1260.9 +! HU! + LB I! $@10.$@L10. OE@;"J $@10. $@! O Greyeconomy ;"K componentsincludedinGDP +!#|M +Ј +!;"NU! + LB;"O!  @8.4 @L8.4 LB@;"PU  @8.4  @! L pf@u!PU  @8.4  @! (@1354.0(@p1,354.0 +!;"QU! + LB;"R! &@11.&@L11. OE@!%S &@11. &@! ONettaxesonproductsandimports LB&bV 333333@7.3333333@L7.3 LB@!%WU 333333@7.3 333333@! L +!!%X! +Ј +!!%YU! +Ј +!!%ZU! +Exciseduties,VAT,salestaxandtaxesonproductsminussubsidiesonproducts(forpassengertransport;tooffsetpricedifferencesinindustry;forcollectiveservices)./%#(`  ! /#_"##4~"#@@vv)pMMMMM