WPCK bJrg~"w>f)UB}5قMGSۘR܀v9<ޥdM6hdmnf&" /Yb2LIh PġmXEH]N|}{eh.LܓicHИM"Y> 6/*H(+X)Y& iO+cXx~w=i?Akx\,\.u=w f*6[X"_9Zf_ox;BX!ogx 0<$ZRE놮J(jYdƏ/gy$EA~`H;Vxy'5l/ IhHwJ'j6p"t|@=t]Q+-kr#MLҊ ތ2MK\לGԩ o,xަ׫"e%UN %T 0*ZU><w@4>ROaOU> U>= { + 3 ; C U>K  U>;y 0Fe>O 0F #U> B:: 0_W 0(9 Z 6Times New Roman RegularX(p$TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }UKUS.,XaXXXBXXa    <( 9Z &Courier Regularg:\wpwin\template\logo\pp.wpt D//EDӀ8A"B"3|x E $$+ UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}    !  1  /  PreparedbyMrs.ClementinaIvanUngureanu b GE.97M30337(E) E $$+ UKUS., X}XXX KXX}    !  1  /  PreparedbyMrs.ClementinaIvanUngureann b GE.97M30337(E)<( 9Z &Courier Regular<( 9Z &Courier RegularGE.97-9730337FINAL  ' 0HOBBS/ CES/AC.68/530SOSN .6 pages  121314<( 9Z &Courier Regular  C'+ UKUS.,X|XXXKXX|    SOSN@vvvpM  2  ڀM   C   GE.97M30337S1      3      ;      C   CES/AC.68/53<( 9Z &Courier Regular  C'+ UKUS.,X|XXXKXX|    SOSN@vvvpM  2  ڀM   C   GE.97M30337S1      3      ;      C   (3N$ p!TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}      N'+ UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}    CES/AC.68/53  page  2   4 N(+ UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}     ++X  CES/AC.68/53   ++++  page  2  (3N$ p!TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}     H  N(+ UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}    ! ++X!  CES/AC.68/53    page  2  <( 9Z &Courier Regular d(c$  0  /(O3$ p!TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}       !  0  / p!TRW 6&A43'6&A43'T+ }UKUS.,X}XXX]XX}     b} ++X2  %  CES/AC.68/53%y b   %  12March1997%  ENGLISH  Original:%  FRENCH%$++X*X++h$%  STATISTICALCOMMISSIONand   ;     COMMISSIONOFTHEEUROPEAN  0 ECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOREUROPE ;     COMMISSIONS(EUROSTAT) X  CONFERENCEOFEUROPEANSTATISTICIANS    OrganizationforEconomic   М    3      ;     CooperationandDevelopmentJointECE/Eurostat/OECDMeeting̀onnationalaccounts(Paris,3M6June1997)Item2oftheprovisionalagenda@ pEXHAUSTIVENESSOFTHENATIONALACCOUNTSINROMANIA@ pSubmittedbytheRomanianNationalStatisticalCommission   #c  1  /    כ ~     b}@t t pEXHAUSTIVENESSOFNATIONALACCOUNTSINROMANIA1.  Overthepastsevenyears,Romanianstatisticshaveundergoneconstant ~ modificationsandadaptationstoenablethemtofurnishusersathomeandabroadwiththeinformationtheyneedtoevaluatethecountryseconomicandsocialsituation.OneofthemainareasconcernedhasbeentheintroductionofSNA.2.  Thefirstyearinwhichnon-financialnationalaccounts-i.e.thetwo " 0 consolidatedbalancesheets:thecomprehensiveeconomictableandtheinput/outputtable(incurrentandconstantpricessince1990)-weredrawnupwas1989.Thefinalversionofthetablesisavailabletwoyearsaftertheendoftheperiodcovered,andispublishedalongwithaneconomicanalysisofthephenomenacharacterizingit,drawingonthedatafromthenationalaccounts.3.  TheintroductionofnationalaccountsinRomanianstatisticalpractice R`  hasbeenalong-drawn-outprocess,requiringsourcesofdataneededtocalculatespecificindicatorstobemodifiedandrefined,theultimateobjectivebeingtoevaluateactivityintheeconomy.  Inviewofthespecialfeaturesofthetransitionperiod,thenumerouslegislativechangesaffectingeconomicactivity,andthetweakingofsourcesofstatistical,financial-accountingandadministrativedata,theintroductionofnationalaccountshaspassedthroughanumberofstages:0  -0 ##theperiodfrom1989to1990,whenaggregatesspecifictothe  materialproductsystemwereconvertedtoSNAindicatorswithadjustmentsandcorrections;  # # 0  -0 ##theperiodfrom1991to1992,duringwhichthecollectionofdata &4 underMPSwasdefinitivelyabandonedand,initsplace,thefirstsurveyswereassembledforuseincalculatingtheinput/outputtableincurrentandcomparableprices.TheintroductionofSNAwasmadepossiblebychangestotheaccountingscheduleofeconomicunitsandtheclassificationsystemusedinthenationalpublicbudget-twoimportantsourcesintheproductionofnationalaccounts;  # # 0  -0 ##theperiodfrom1993to1995,duringwhichthereweresignificant #*' improvementsinthesourcesofdatausedinproducingthenationalaccounts,amongthem:  # # 0  0 ##*03 # #theintroductionofthestructuralstatisticalsurvey,the 4&B!+ householdsurveyandtheemploymentsurvey; 3 #3 # 0  0 ##*03 # #thefinalizationoftheStatisticalRegistry-thebasefor (#. theestablishmentofspecificsamplesforstatisticalsurveys; 3 #3 # 0  0 ##*03 # #improvementsinthebalanceofpayments,andalignmentof +&2 thebalancewithInternationalMonetaryFundmethodology; 3 #3 #  *-8(4 0  0 ##*03 # #theusesince1994ofthenewchartofaccounts,inkeeping  withinternationalpractice; 3 #3 # 0  0 ##*03 # #theintroductionintothestatisticalandfinancial DR accountingsystemsofthenewnationalclassificationofeconomicactivity,comparabletothatusedinternationally; 3 #3 # 0  -0 ##since1996,thedatasourcesusedhaveshownsomestability, \ j providingdataconsistentwithinternationalstandardsandenablingtheaccuracyofthenationalaccountsindicatorstobeenhanced.  # # 4.  ThesestagesbearwitnesstotheconcernamongRomanianaccountantsto :H  improvethecontentofindicatorsandwhereverpossibletocoverallactivityintheeconomy.ThedifferencesnowapparentinmethodsofcalculationandsourcesusedbycomparisonwiththeearlyyearsofthetransitionperiodrepresentchangesintroducedwithaviewtoobtainingexhaustiveGDPfiguresandnationalaccountsgenerally.5.  ThenormalworkingmethodfortheRomaniannationalaccountsisto  evaluateGDPusingthethreeapproaches,whicharenotformulatedseparatelyorindependentlybutalwaysinconjunctionsoastoensurecomparabilitybetweenthemandbetweenthedataobtainedforbranchesofactivityandforinstitutionalsectors.Thisrequiresinterimcorrectionsandtrade-offsinordertoarriveatafinal,singlefigureforGDP.Thisvalueisexhaustivewhenaccountistakenofallthestatisticalandadministrativeunitsregistered,unitsengaginginactivitiesbutnotregistered,andtheunitswhosedeclarationsasusedincalculatingthenationalaccountsare,fordiversereasons,incorrect.6.  ToconveythedegreeofexhaustivenessoftheGDPvaluecalculated,it &4 isnecessarytodescribethecontentandqualityofthedatasourcesusedtoconstructthenationalaccounts,andtheworkingmethodsfollowed. 2.  SourcesofthedatausedtocalculateGDPandensureexhaustiveness >L"  2.1  Oneofthemainsourcesofdatafortheannualnationalaccounts,the  $ in-outtableinparticular,istheannualbusinesssurvey.ThesurveysampleisestablishedusinginformationfromtheREGISstatisticalregister.TheprincipalcharacteristicofREGISisthatitiscompatiblewiththeotherregistersinuseintheeconomy:thetraderegisterandthetaxregister,thusputtingallunitsactiveintheeconomyinplainview.2.2  Thesampleofunitsthatfillintheannualsurveyquestionnaire 4&B!+ includesnon-financialentitieswhoseoutturnsaresubmittedtotheMinistryofFinance,budgetaryunits,lendinginstitutions,insurancecompaniesandnon-profit-makinginstitutions.Theextentofthedatagatherediskeptinlinewiththeinformationcoveredintheoutturnsandotheradministrativesources,thusensuringconsistencyamongthesourcesusedincompilingthenationalaccounts.  d,r'3 2.3  Itmustbestressedthatduringtheprocessingofthesurvey,the  figuresintheoutturnforeachunitinthesamplearecomparedwiththeinformationobtainedbythesurvey.Itemscomparedincludeturnover,expenditure,stocks,remunerationofemployees,investmentandnumberofemployees.2.4  Theaccount-sheetdataareusedtocalculateoperationsinthe   institutional non-financialcorporationsandquasi-corporationssector,and \ j thefiguresfromthestructuralsurveytoestimateoutput,intermediateconsumptionandgrossvalue-addedinthebranchesofactivitycoveredbytheinput/outputtable.Consistencybetweenthetwosourcesguaranteescompatibilitybetweenthetwotables.2.5  IsthisawaytoensuretheexhaustivenessofGDPfigures??Asmentioned   above,thestatisticalregisterattheheartofthesamplingsystemisnowoperational,linkedtootherregistersinuseintheeconomy,andconstantlyupdated,thusofferingahighdegreeofcertaintyasregardstheeconomicunitscovered.Additionally,outturnsarefilledinandsubmittedtotheMinistryofFinancebyalleconomicunits,notablysincetheintroductionofcheck-upsbytheMinistry,especiallyoverthepastthreeyears.IntheϜcircumstances,wearecertainthattheentirefieldofnon-financialentitiesiscovered.2.6  Toproducenationalaccountsinotherinstitutionalsectors,specific,  exhaustivedatasourcesareused,viz.:0  -0 ##thebalancesheetsofinsurancecompanies(whichnumbered33in  1996)andlendinginstitutions(34bankswereinoperationinRomaniain1996)todrawupthesequenceofaccountsinthe   financialcorporationssectorandcalculateindicatorsforthe `n correspondingbranch;  # # 0  -0 ##theperformancereportonthenationalpublicbudgetforthe    publicadministrationsector;x! # # 0  -0 ##thebalanceofpayments,which,since1993,hasbeenproduced  # followingtheIMFmethodology,thusensuringthatallactivitybyeconomicunitsdomiciledinRomaniawiththerestoftheworldiscoveredandevaluated;  # # 0  -0 ##incomedeclarationsfilledinbyindividualentrepreneursand #( familyassociations,usedtoevaluateoperationsinthe $)  householdsectorandindicatorsinspecificbranchesof n%| * activity;  # # 0  -0 ##statementsofaccountsfilledinbynon-profit-makingenterprises, '"- usedtocalculateindicatorsspecificallyforthissector.  # # 2.7  Anotherimportantsourceofstatistics,particularlyforthecalculation * %0 offinalconsumptionexpenditurebythegeneralpublic,istheintegratedhouseholdsurvey.Thiswasintroducedin1994toreplacetheoldsurveyoffamilybudgets.Itisconductedmonthlyandcoversarotatingmonthlysampleof3,000householdsthroughoutthecountryat501observationpoints. *-8(4 Ї2.8  IfGDPistobecalculatedusingthesethreemethods,thentheymustbe  compatibleandintegrated.Thiscanbearrangedusingtheinput/outputtable.Thefactthatdifferentsourcesareusedforthethreemethodsmeansthatthevaluesobtainedneedtobeanalysedandtrade-offsmadebetweenthemtoproducethebestevaluationofGDP.Thetrade-offsmadeimprovetheexhaustivenessofthenationalaccounts.̜ 3.0  Improvingtheexhaustivenessofthenationalaccounts-theunderground \ j economy " 0## 3.1  Obtainingreliable,comparableandexhaustiveestimatesforspecific    indicatorsofthenationalaccounts,andofGDPespecially,wasnoteasy,particularlywhileRomaniansocietywasintransition,owinginparttothechangesundergonebythesourcesofdatausedandinparttosocio-economicphenomenathatarehardtoidentifyandevaluate.Somephenomenagaverisetotheemergenceanddevelopmentofaparallel,hidden,undergroundeconomy.3.2  Theundergroundeconomyappearsinthetrade,transport,construction, &  vehiclerepair,tourism,hotel,restaurant,health,teachingandpersonalservicesectors.Someeconomicactorsengaginginlegalactivitytoobtaingoodsandservicesdonotdeclaretheseadministrativelyorstatistically,eithertoavoidpayingincometax,social-securitycontributions,wagestaxorotherlevies,orbecausetheyarenotobservinglegalrequirementsasregardsminimumwages,workinghoursandsoforth.3.4  Asmentionedabove,themainsourcesofdataforfinancialand HV non-financialentitiesaretheoutturnstheyfillinandtheannualbusinesssurvey,whichcoversallunits.Butthedatausedtocalculatethenationalaccountsmaybeunder-estimatesforthereasonsindicatedabove.Toavoidthis,informationfromchecksconductedbytheFinancialPoliceareused.Everyyear,onethirdofthecountryseconomicunitsarechecked,irrespectiveoftheirsizeorformofownership;followingthemodeladopted,theirconductasregardstaxevasionisgeneralizedandascribedtotheentireeconomy.Taxevasionbynon-financialcorporationswascalculatedat5.3%ofGDPin1995.3.5  Declarationsofincomeareusedtoestimateactivitybyfamily  $ associationsandindividualentrepreneurs.Asthesearefilledinatthebeginningoftheyearforthecurrentyear,individualentrepreneursandfamilybusinessesareconsideredtobeasourceofinvoluntarytaxevasion.ϜWhy??Becausethedeclarationsmadearebasedontheoutcomeoftheprecedingyearsactivityanditishard,particularlyinahigh-inflationeconomy,toestimatehowmuchbusinessonewilldoduringthecurrentyear.Thusincomedeclaredinyearnisattributedtotheyearn-1,thedifferencerepresenting 4&B!+ thetaxevasionascribedtothehouseholdsector.3.6  Toroundoutthenationalaccounts,besidesestimatesoftaxevasionan (#. estimateisalsomadeof moonlighting.Themethodemployedisbasedon L)Z$/ analysisofsupplyanddemandonthelabourmarket,toidentifypeoplepursuingalegalactivitywhoarenotofficiallyregistered.Ithasbeenusablesince1994,whentheAMIGOlaboursurveywasalsointroduced.Forthefirsttwoyearsthesurveywasconductedonceayear,inMarch;since1996ithasbeenaquarterlyevent,providingmorereliableinformation. *-8(4 Ї3.7  ThelaboursupplyisestimatedusingtheannualAMIGOsurvey,which  providesinformationonthenumberofpeopledeclaringthemselvestohaveajobduringthereferenceperiod,thetypeofbusinessandthebranchesofthenationaleconomyinwhichtheyhaveworked.3.8  Demandforlabourisestimatedfromtheannualbusinesssurvey(the  structuralsurvey),whichfurnishesinformationonthenumberofpeoplewhohavehadajobandhavebeenregistered,bothstatisticallyandadministratively.3.9  Inthelightofthesourcesused,labourdemandandsupplyarecompared    ineachbranchoftheeconomy,andtheextentof moonlightingisthus t   establishedforunitsinthe non-financialcorporationsand :H  quasi-corporationsand non-profit-makinginstitutionssectors.Moonlighting   workersoutputisestimatedbymultiplyingthevaluesestablishedamongsmallbusinessesbythedifference(innumbersofworkers)betweenthedemandforandsupplyoflabourineachbranchoftheeconomyseparately. 4.  Futureprospects    4.1  Sinceworkonthecalculationofnationalaccountsbegan,anefforthas jx beenmadetokeepdatasourcesunderconstantreview,toimprovethemethodsused,inordertomaketheSNAindicatorssubstantiallymoreexhaustive.Althoughbyintroducingstatisticalsurveysandcalculatingthesizeoftheundergroundeconomybetterresultshavebeenobtainedeveryyear,considerablyincreasingtheexhaustivenessofGDP,whichremainstheprincipalobjectiveofthecountrysaccountants.4.2  Atpresent,muchoftheworkprogrammeisdevotedtoapplyingand  refiningthemethodologyforvalidatingnationalaccountindicators,GDPespecially,usingemploymentstatistics.Thiswillbecomepossibleasof1996,whentheAMIGOemploymentsurveygoesquarterly.4.3  Specialattentionwillalsobepaidtowaysofestimatingand x! incorporatingbenefitsinkindandgratuitiesintothenationalaccounts.@vv)pMMMMM