How the global energy system will develop is one of today’s big unknowns. As energy is both cause and solution to many global problems, testing plausible alternative energy futures is the basis for informed decision making. 

Recognising this, UNECE member States are embarking on a project that aims at providing an instrument for transparent model-based analysis of scenarios for sustainable energy in the pan-European region, which in turn could be a valuable contribution into the UNECE’s work to facilitate the transition to a sustainable energy future. Developing the methodology, an “inclusive” modelling environment, and tools for assessment of the implications of the scenarios for the UNECE, the project will provide systematic investigation of scenarios that cover the range of plausible outcomes, comparison of reference scenarios and potential new scenarios, and testing of alternative strategic choices and priorities to ensure attainment of sustainable outcomes. Work will facilitate exchanges among international energy experts and policy makers to coordinate and improve existing models, instruments and results.

This first workshop will explore four scenarios or stories about energy futures that will be the basis for the next step, i.e. the building of a transparent and model-based instrument. Each story is plausible, but is intended to stretch mental maps in unexpected ways about global energy challenges and how we might respond to them. The scenarios then lead to the development of early warning signals, or signposts, that can provide clarity on the way the world is headed.

A second workshop to be organised in September 2015 will help formulate and structure the strategic and scenario perspectives for sustainable energy and specify both inputs and potential outputs for subsequent systemic and quantitative scenario modelling exercises.

The results from a workshop on “Scenarios for Sustainable Energy”, to be held on 26 May 2015, will inform the discussions of the Open-ended Consultations. The workshop will target twenty to thirty international energy experts interested in developing an instrument for transparent model-based analysis of scenarios for sustainable energy in the UNECE region. Please contact the secretariat if you would like to participate.