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Rome, Italy

Document TitleENGPresentations
INF.1Information Notice 1PDF
INF.2 Rev.Information Notice 2 PDF
INF.3Information Notice 3PDF
Provisional agendaPDF
Book of abstractPDF
Draft reportPDF
Keynote lectures
Probabilistic demographic projections (University of Oslo)PDF

Population Ageing – A Threat to the Welfare State? (Lund University)

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Assumptions on future migration
WP4.1Projections of ageing migrant populations in France: 2008-2028 (INED)PDFPDF
WP4.2Introducing duration dependant emigration in DREAMs population projection model (DREAM)PDF
WP4.3Model to forecast the re-immigration of Swedish-born by background  (Sweden)PDFPDF
WP4.4Dynamical models for migration projections (Iceland)PDFPDF
Assumptions on future mortality
WP5.1Cohort effects and structural changes in the mortality trend (Portugal)PDFPDF
WP5.2Evaluation of Korean Mortality Forecasting Models (Korea)PDFPDF
WP5.3Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: compositional models for French Cause of Death data, 1925-2008 (INED)PDFPDF
WP5.4Changing mortality trends by age and sex are challenges for assumptions on future mortality (Sweden)PDFPDF
Actual and potential use of demographic projections at national and international level
WP6.1Indexation of the pension age to projected remaining life expectancy in The Netherlands (Netherlands)PDFPDF
WP6.2The role of population projections for a redefinition of the Portuguese higher educational institutional network (University of Évora)PDFPDF
WP6.3On the use of seasonal forecasting methods to model birth and deaths data as an input for monthly population estimates (Portugal)PDF
National and international population projections out of the EU region
WP7.1Qualitative and methodological aspects of population projections in Georgia; Georgian Population Prospects:1950-2050 (Ilia State University)PDFPDF
WP7.2Population Prospects of Georgia (Ilia State University)PDFPDF
WP7.3Estimation of the size and vital rates of the Haredi (ultra-orthodox) population in Israel for the purpose of long-range population projections (Isreal)PDFPDF
WP7.4Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region (NIDI)PDFPDF
Assumptions on future fertility
WP8.1Contribution of fertility model and parameterization to population projection errors (VID)PDFPDF
WP8.2New family values and increased childbearing in Sweden? (Sweden)PDFPDF
WP8.3Projecting fertility by regions considering tempo-adjusted TFR, the Austrian approach (Austria)PDFPDF
WP8.4Effects of childbearing postponement on cohort fertility in Germany (Destatis)PDFPDF
Stochastic methods in population projections
WP9.1Measuring uncertainty in population forecasts: a new approach (University of California Riverside, University of California San Diego)PDFPDF
WP9.2Stochastic population forecast: an application to the Rome Metropolitan Area (University of Rome 'La Sapienza', CNR IRPPS)PDFPDF
WP9.3Long-term contribution of immigration to population renewal in Canada: a sensitivity analysis using Demosim (Canada)PDFPDF
WP9.4From agent-based models to statistical emulators (University of Southampton)PDFPDF
Household projections
WP10.1

Estimating the number of households: an unavoidable challenge for the statistical system (INE)

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WP10.2

A household projection model for Belgium based on individual household membership rates, using the LIPRO typology (Federal Planning Bureau)

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WP10.3

Household Projections and Welfare (University of Milan Bicocca, ISMU, Ministero del Lavoro e delle Politiche Sociali)

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Demographic sustainability and consistency with macroeconomic assumptions
WP11.1

Ageing alone? The future of the Portuguese population in discussion (University of Évora)

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WP11.2

Integrating labor market in population projections (CSIC - Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia)

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WP11.3

Economic factors and net migration assumptions for EU countries – how to incorporate lessons from the recent economic crisis? (Warsaw School of Economics)

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Bayesian approaches (1)
WP12.1

Bayesian functional models for population forecasting (University of Southampton, the Australian National University)

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WP12.2

Towards stochastic forecasts of the Italian population: an experiment with conditional expert elicitations University of Oxford, Istat, Bocconi University)

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WP12.3

Expert-Based stochastic population forecasting: a bayesian approach to the combination of the elicitations (University of Oxford, Bocconi University)

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Bayesian approaches (2)
WP13.1

Bayesian probabilistic projection of international migration rates (University of Washington)

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WP13.2

Bayesian probabilistic population projections: do it yourself (University of Washington, UNPD)

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WP13.3

Bayesian mortality forecasts with a flexible age pattern of change for several European countries (University of Rostock)

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Multiregional projections
WP14.1

Examining the Role of International Migration in Global Population Projections (VID, IAASA)

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WP14.2

Subnational population projections for Turkey, 2013-2023 (Turkey)

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WP14.3

An alternative projection model for interprovincial migration in Canada (Canada)

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WP14.4

A Space-Time extension of the Lee-Carter model in a hierarchical bayesian framework: modelling and forecasting provincial mortality in Italy. (University of Bologna)

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Beyond population projections by age and sex: inclusion of additional population characteristics
WP15.1

Projecting inequality: the role of population change Vrije University of Bruxelles, KU Leuven University)

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WP15.2

The impact of Canadian immigrant selection policy on future imbalances in labour force supply by broad skill levels (INRS Urbanisation Culture Société Research Centre)

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WP15.3

Microsimulation of language characteristics and language choice in multilingual regions with high immigration ( INRS Urbanisation Culture, Société Research Centre)

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WP15.4

A method for projecting economically active population. The case of Andalusia (Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia)

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Population projections by age, sex and level of education (1)
WP16.1

The scientific base of the new Wittgenstein Centre Global Human Capital Projections: defining assumptions through an evaluation of expert views on future fertility, mortality and migration (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU)

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WP16.2

Developing Expert-Based assumptions on future fertility, mortality and migratio (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU)

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WP16.3

The impact of alternative assumptions about migration differentials by education on projections of human capital (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU)

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Population projections by age, sex and level of education (2)
WP17.1

Estimating transition age schedules for long-term projections of global educational attainment ( IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU)

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WP17.2

Results of the New Wittgenstein Centre Population Projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU)

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WP17.3

Labor force projections for Europe by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment, 2008 to 2053 (IIASA, ÖAW/VID, WU)

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