[RUSSIAN]
Transition
economies: less money, fewer children
EMBARGO
Not to be released before
Wednesday, 3 May 2000
00:01 GMT
Press Release
ECE/GEN/00/13
Geneva, 26 April 2000
UN/ECE releases its first 2000 Economic
Survey of Europe
"The economic and social
crisis was a prime force behind the large fertility decline in transition economies of
eastern and central Europe as well as in former Soviet Union republics", stresses Mr.
Miroslav Macura, Chief, Population Activities Unit of the United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe (UN/ECE). The Economic Survey of Europe, just released by the
UN/ECE, shows that the onset of the political and economic transformation of the European
transition economies has ushered in profound demographic changes, including a surge in
international migration, divergent mortality trends, with temporary increases in many
cases, and a precipitous decline in fertility in many parts of the region.Fertility fall started in 1989
…The fall in fertility, the Survey stresses, started within a few years beginning in 1989. In most of the then European
Soviet Republics and in Romania it got under way in 1989, in much of central Europe in
1992. In the former German Democratic Republic, where fertility fell more than anywhere
else, it began immediately after the collapse of the communist regime. In much of the
former SFR of Yugoslavia, a gradual decline was already under way in the 1980s and this
continued without any major interruption as the country disintegrated (see
chart 6.2.1).
Once the fall in fertility rates got
underway, it generally proceeded without interruption beyond the middle of the 1990s. The
major exception is East Germany, where recovery began after total fertility had reached an
astonishingly low rate of 0.76 children per woman in 1993. In the majority of these
countries, the decline has either decelerated in recent years or, as the data for 1997 and
1998 suggest, came to a stop or even, in some cases, turned into a modest recovery. Where
the decline, at least for the time being, appears to have run its course, the total
fertility rate has generally reached levels that are very low by European standards. In
1998, these were mostly below 1.3 children per woman, with Latvia (1.09) and Bulgaria
(1.11) having the lowest rates. The average fertility rate in the transition economies in
1997 was 1.37, a third lower than in 1988. For comparison, the average rate in the
European market economies in 1997 was 1.58. Within ten years, fertility in the transition
economies has fallen from an average rate that ensured the replacement of generations of
the population to two-thirds of that level.... and was mainly due to economic
and social conditions …The start of the transition
process was everywhere accompanied by large declines in output, employment and real wages,
which combined to produce a reduction in total real income from employment accruing to the
household sector, a major determinant of the living standards of, among others,
individuals and couples in their childbearing years. Reversals of the decline in real
income have occurred in central Europe, although its recovery was not complete by 1998.
Elsewhere in the region, a minor recovery has occurred in many countries, but in 1998 the
level of real income from employment was nowhere higher than 50 per cent of its 1989
level. Governments shared the experience of
households, in that their incomes fell as well. Partly because of this state support to
families with children fell in all the transition economies except Slovenia and Romania.
The declines have been larger for two- than for one-child families. At the same time, some
of the services provided to families with children (for example, institutionalised daytime
child-care) that were once free or nominally priced have become more expensive. The real
cost of children therefore increased as the real incomes of their parents fell. As a
result, individuals and couples postponed, or abandoned altogether, having children, thus
preventing their living standards from falling even lower. … but also to changes in life
styleThe analysis published in the Survey provides ample evidence for the view that falling incomes had a depressing effect on
fertility. However, this is only part of a bigger picture as other factors were also at
work. In particular, the return of civil society to these countries reinstated rights and
freedoms that were denied to the citizens of the former socialist countries. Also, the Survey argues that the norms and values that are now in the ascendant, and are consistent with
the new political and economic order, have enlarged the scope for individual choice and
decision-making in many areas of behaviour. These changes have encouraged new patterns of
reproductive and family behaviour and new life-styles conducive to a trend away from
conjugal life and children. The Survey suggests that expanding education,
particularly among women (see chart 6.3.7), which has occurred throughout the
region, might also have encouraged the spread of new forms of behaviour leading to lower
fertility. These developments appear to have taken place primarily in central Europe where
fertility has continued to decline despite the fact that the economy and living standards
have started to improve.
Fertility recovery could be fostered
by family policiesAs governments in many transition
economies view the current very low fertility rates with concern, the question arises as
to whether they can do anything to assist its recovery. "Some recovery, although
possibly not a major one," stresses Mr. Miroslav Macura, "is almost certain
to occur in a number of countries irrespective of what governments do because the impact
of postponed births on the total fertility rate will eventually wane". Beyond that,
where further recovery is judged necessary, "governments may be able to raise
fertility by reinvigorating various family policies, including the provision of financial
or tax benefits to individuals and couples with children as well as measures enabling them
to balance more easily their parental and work roles. "Although expensive, these
policies can be successful and are not incompatible with a market economy –
but they do require lots of political will", concludes Mr. Macura. Such policies can
be very valuable: they add to the well-being of families and children, they help
individuals and couples to approach, if not attain, their desired family size, they enable
women to have children and remain in paid employment, and they can help to bring
aggregate fertility back towards replacement levels, a goal that is judged important by
many societies concerned with their long-term survival.
For further information please contact:Mr. Miroslav Macura
Chief, Population Activities Unit
Economic Analysis Division
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)
Palais des Nations
CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: (+41 22) 917 27 64
Fax: (+41 22) 917 01 01
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.unece.org/ead/ead_h.htm
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