Press
Release ECE/GEN/99/30
Geneva, 14 December 1999
UN/ECE: FAVOURABLE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 2000
3% ANNUAL GROWTH IN WESTERN EUROPE OUTPUT GROWTH AT A TEN-YEAR HIGH IN
TRANSITION ECONOMIES
United Nations Economic Commission
for Europe releases
its latest 1999 Economic Survey of Europe
Western Europe and North America
After the gloomy assessment of a
year ago, the outlook for the ECE economies has improved in line with the generally better
prospects for the world economy as a whole. For western Europe, however, the
improvement is so far reflected more strongly in order books and industrial confidence
than in actual performance. In the first half of 1999 real GDP rose by only some 1.5 per
cent while industrial output remained sluggish. For the year as a whole, the UN/ECE now
expects the increase in GDP to average 2.1 per cent in the European Union and just under 2
per cent in all of western Europe. (The difference between the two is largely due to the
effect of the earthquakes on Turkey’s GDP). The overall picture contains large
variations in the performance of individual countries, strong growth in many of the
smaller economies contrasting with the more sluggish development in Germany and Italy. The
available indicators show the west European economies to be gathering strength in the
second half of 1999 and this is expected to continue next year. As a result of stronger
growth in the four largest economies, west European growth in 2000 is now expected to
average close to 3 per cent.
Growth in North America in
1999 has continued to be stronger than expected and now seems likely to average 3.8 per
cent in 1999 for the second year running. A cyclical slowdown is forecast in the United
States in 2000 but the deceleration is relatively mild with real GDP growth expected to be
about the same as the west European average.
Although the downside risks to this
outlook may be less than a year ago they are still significant. Despite many false
warnings, there is still widespread fear of an abrupt adjustment in United States equity
prices leading to a rapid and prolonged slowdown in domestic demand, a development which
would also test the willingness of foreigners to continue financing the burgeoning and
record United States trade deficit. Such a development could lead to a more severe
tightening of United States monetary policy than currently envisaged with exchange rate
consequences for western Europe and the rest of the world.
A key assumption of the optimistic
scenario is that slower growth in the United States will be offset by faster growth
in Japan and western Europe, a development which should help to correct the United States
current account deficit. Current forecasts support this outlook, but the recovery in Japan
is still fragile and in western Europe it is still in its early stage and therefore still
vulnerable to setbacks and uncertainties over macro-economic policy stances. In the
European Union a major concern is to avoid a premature tightening of monetary policy which
would check the nascent recovery. Despite some reversal in last year’s dramatic fall
in commodity prices, there is no reason to expect any significant acceleration in price
increases and therefore no good reason for an increase in European interest rates. At the
present time the monetary policy of the ECB might be expected to be giving greater
attention to its other principal objective specified in the Treaty, namely, to support
economic activity and employment in the euro area.
Central and eastern Europe and the CIS
In the course of 1999, economic
expectations and the short-term outlook for the ECE transition economies have been
unusually volatile and have undergone major changes and revisions. At the start of the
year, the negative impact of the Russian crisis turned out to be much stronger than
expected for a number of transition economies (notably the three Baltic states) which led
to weaker expectations and downward revisions of forecasts. However, towards mid-year, and
especially in the second half, output performance started to improve in many transition
economies under the influence of the strengthening of the economic recovery in western
Europe (whose favourable impact in terms of rising import demand has started to gain
momentum). This has brought about a positive improvement of expectations and forecasts, at
least in some of the transition economies.
In the Baltic states, the 1999 growth
forecasts have been significantly lowered and despite some improvement in expectations
since the summer, it is unlikely that the recent strengthening of output can offset the
disastrous performance in the first half of the year. Thus while the earlier official
forecasts for GDP growth in 1999 were in the range of 4-5 per cent in all three countries,
by October they had been reduced to close to zero for Estonia and Lithuania and to
1 per cent for Latvia. Forecasts have been revised in a number of central European
transition economies as well. Poland is unlikely to achieve the previously forecast 4.5
per cent rate of GDP growth in 1999 (the official projection has been lowered to 4 per
cent), but there are clear signs of an improvement in economic performance after the very
weak first quarter. Most observers agree that the Czech economy has turned the corner and
that growth should strengthen in the second half of the year. By October, GDP growth in
Slovakia and Slovenia was still expected to be in the range of 3-3.5 per cent, which
represents only a slight reduction in earlier forecasts. Hungary will remain the fastest
growing among the central European and Baltic economies in 1999, with a revised forecast
of 4.5 per cent growth in GDP (slightly below the previously expected 5 per cent).
The Kosovo conflict was an unexpected
negative shock for many transition economies, especially those in south-east Europe.
Virtually all the south-east European transition economies have lowered their official
forecasts in the course of 1999. GDP in a number of these economies (in particular
Croatia, Bulgaria and The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) is likely to stagnate in
1999 as a whole (or, at best, to show a marginal increase), while the official growth
forecast for Romania (which had been negative before the conflict) was lowered still
further. Although there are no reliable data on the current economic situation in
Yugoslavia, all observers agree that the war delivered an exceptionally hard blow to the
economy. The forecasts for 1999 vary widely, but all of them point to a deep fall in GDP
ranging from 25 to 50 per cent as compared with 1998. The hardship now being borne by the
population of Yugoslavia is already considerable and is set to worsen with the onset of
winter.
On balance, the prevailing expectations in
October 1999 were that output in the second half of the year would be stronger than in the
first half, both in central Europe and in the Baltic states. If this expectation
materializes, the growth of aggregate GDP in eastern Europe for the year as a whole could
reach 1 per cent (combining a 3 per cent growth rate in central Europe with a 4.5 per cent
fall in south-east Europe). As to the Baltic states, their aggregate GDP is likely to
remain stagnant for the year as a whole.
The short-term outlook for the CIS
countries is dominated by that for the Russian economy. While much uncertainty still
surrounds the outlook for the Russian economy, the short-term prospects have improved
considerably since the beginning of the year partly because of the marked rise in oil
prices. The improvement is reflected in a series of upward revisions to the official 1999
growth forecasts. Thus, at the beginning of the year the official forecast was for a
continued fall in GDP in 1999; by mid-October this had been revised to positive growth of
0.5-1.5 per cent. If the unexpectedly strong recovery of industrial output continues
through the end of the year, it would not be unrealistic to expect the growth of Russian
GDP to come close to the upper bound of this range. Thanks to the recovery in Russia, the
short-term outlook for most of the CIS countries has also improved in the second half of
1999. In particular, the official forecasts for Ukraine have been raised and by
October they envisaged that GDP would remain flat in 1999, in contrast to the beginning of
the year when it was expected to fall in 1999. The one major exception to this
general improvement is Kazakhstan where the forecast for GDP growth has been lowered
to -1.5 per cent for the year as a whole, following the negative outcome in the first half
of the year. All in all, by October the aggregate GDP of the CIS countries was being
officially forecast to grow by some 1¼ per cent, which represents a major improvement on
the earlier forecast of -1.1 per cent.
Positive expectations generally prevail in
the official forecasts for the transition economies in 2000 as well. In virtually all the
countries for which such forecasts are available, the authorities expect positive rates of
GDP growth in 2000 and an acceleration as compared with 1999. If these expectations
materialize, the growth of aggregate GDP in eastern Europe could reach some 3 per cent
in 2000, that in the Baltic states might be in the range of 3.5-4 per cent, while the
CIS countries could average some 2.5 per cent. These forecasts imply that GDP in the ECE
transition economies as a whole would grow by some 2¾ per cent in 2000, an average
rate of growth that has not yet been achieved during the past 10 years of economic
transformation.
Further information can be
obtained from:
Paul Rayment
Economic Analysis Division
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)
Palais des Nations
CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: +(4122) 917 27 18
Fax: +(4122) 917 03 09
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.unece.org/ead/ead_h.htm
TABLE 1.2.1
Basic economic
indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1997-2000
(Rates of change and shares, per
cent)
| |
GDP (growth rates) |
Industrial output
(growth rates) |
Inflation (per cent change, Dec./Dec.) |
Unemployment rate
(end of period, per cent) |
| |
1999 |
|
| |
1997 |
1998 |
April official forecast |
Jan.-Jun. actual |
October official forecast |
2000 official forecast |
1997 |
1998 |
Jan.-Jun. 1999 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 a |
1997 |
1998 |
Jun. 1999 |
| Eastern Europe |
2.2 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
1 |
3 |
4.8 |
1.2 |
-3.2 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
11.9 |
12.6 |
.. |
| Albania |
-7.0 |
8 |
8 |
.. |
5-6 |
8 |
-5.6 |
10 |
18.0 |
42.0 |
7.8 |
-1.4 |
14.9 |
17.6 |
18.0 |
| Bosnia and
Herzegovina b |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
18 |
.. |
35.7 |
23.8 |
9.6 |
12.2 |
2.2 |
-1.6 |
39* |
38.5 |
39.0 |
| Bulgaria |
-6.9 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
-10.0 |
-12.7 |
-13.4 |
578.7 |
0.9 |
-3.2 |
13.7 |
12.2 |
12.8 |
| Croatia |
6.8 |
2.5 |
1.5-2 |
-1.1 |
– |
.. |
6.8 |
3.7 |
-1.9 |
4.0 |
5.6 |
3.9 |
17.6 |
18.6 |
18.9 |
| Czech Republic |
0.3 |
-2.3 |
-0.8 |
-1.9 |
-0.5 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.6 |
-6.6 |
9.9 |
6.7 |
2.2 |
5.2 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
| Hungary |
4.6 |
5.1 |
5 |
3.6 |
4-5 |
4.5 |
11.1 |
12.5 |
6.9 |
18.4 |
10.4 |
9.1 |
10.4 |
9.1 |
9.4 |
| Poland |
6.9 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
2.3 |
4 |
5.2 |
11.5 |
4.6 |
-0.7 |
13.2 |
8.5 |
6.3 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
11.6 |
| Romania |
-6.9 |
-7.3 |
-2 |
-3.9 |
-4.8 |
0.4 |
-7.2 |
-17.0 |
-9.4 |
151.7 |
40.7 |
48.1 |
8.8 |
10.3 |
11.3 |
| Slovakia |
6.5 |
4.4 |
3 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
5.0 |
4.3 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
7.1 |
12.5 |
15.6 |
17.7 |
| Slovenia |
4.6 |
3.9 |
4 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
3¾ |
1.0 |
3.7 |
-2.3 |
8.8 |
6.6 |
4.3 |
14.8 |
14.6 |
13.4 |
| The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia |
1.5 |
2.9 |
6 |
.. |
1-2 |
.. |
1.6 |
4.5 |
-9.7 |
4.5 |
-1.0 |
.. |
42* |
.. |
.. |
| Yugoslavia c |
7.4 |
2.6 |
7 |
.. |
-24 |
.. |
9.5 |
3.6 |
-28.4 |
10.3 |
45.7 |
36.5 |
25.6 |
27.2 |
.. |
| Baltic states |
8.4 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
-3.8 |
¾ |
3¾ |
8.2 |
4.9 |
-10.0 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
6.3 |
7.3 |
8.1 |
| Estonia |
10.6 |
4.0 |
4 |
-3.9 |
0.4 |
3.8-4.0 |
14.6 |
2.3 |
-9.8 |
12.3 |
6.8 |
3.3 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
6.7* |
| Latvia |
8.6 |
3.6 |
4 |
-2.0 |
1 |
3.5 |
13.8 |
3.1 |
-13.9 |
7.0 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
6.7 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
| Lithuania |
7.3 |
5.1 |
5 |
-4.8 |
0.3-1.3 |
3.5-3.8 |
3.3 |
7.0 |
-8.4 |
8.5 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
7.5 |
| CIS |
1.1 |
-2.8 |
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
1¼ |
2½ |
2.6 |
-3.0 |
2.6 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
7.6 |
9.0 |
8.3 |
| Armenia |
3.3 |
7.2 |
4 |
4.9 |
4 |
.. |
8.2 |
-2.7 |
2.8 |
21.8 |
-1.2 |
2.2 |
11.0 |
8.9 |
10.4 |
| Azerbaijan |
5.8 |
10.0 |
9 |
5.6 |
6.5-7.0 |
8 |
0.3 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
-7.6 |
-9.7 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
| Belarus |
11.4 |
8.3 |
4-6 |
2.2 |
4 |
.. |
18.8 |
12.0 |
7.0 |
63.4 |
181.6 |
329.8 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
| Georgia |
11.3 |
2.9 |
8 |
1.7 |
4 |
.. |
8.2 |
-2.7 |
0.6 |
7.3 |
10.8 |
21.0 |
8.0 |
4.2 |
5.5 |
| Kazakhstan |
1.7 |
-2.5 |
1.5 |
-3.3 |
-1.5 |
1 |
4.0 |
-2.1 |
-4.1 |
11.3 |
1.9 |
9.8 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
| Kyrgyzstan |
9.9 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
0.4 |
2.8 |
4 |
50.4 |
8.8 |
-10.0 |
14.7 |
18.3 |
41.4 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
| Republic of Moldova d |
1.6 |
-8.6 |
-3 |
-5.3 |
(-2-3) |
2 |
– |
-11.0 |
-25.2 |
11.1 |
18.2 |
42.8 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
| Russian Federation |
0.9 |
-4.6 |
-2.5 |
-0.7 |
0.5-1.5 |
1.5-3 |
2.0 |
-5.2 |
3.1 |
11.0 |
84.5 |
120.8 |
11.2 |
13.3 |
12.4 |
| Tajikistan |
1.7 |
5.3 |
.. |
2.3 |
3 |
.. |
-2.0 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
159.9 |
2.7 |
19.3 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
| Turkmenistan |
-11.4 |
5.0 |
.. |
14.6 |
7 |
.. |
-32.3 |
0.2 |
18.0 |
21.5 |
19.8 |
24.9 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
| Ukraine |
-3.2 |
-1.7 |
-1 |
-3.0 |
– |
2 |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
0.2 |
10.1 |
20.0 |
26.5 |
2.8 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
| Uzbekistan |
5.2 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
5 |
4.1 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
27.5 |
25.9 |
29.5 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
| Total above |
1.6 |
-1.1 |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
1 |
2¾ |
3.7 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
| Memorandum items: |
| CETE-5 |
4.8 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
1.7 |
3 |
4 |
8.3 |
5.1 |
-0.6 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
9.8 |
10.2 |
11.3 |
| SETE-7 |
-3.9 |
-2.6 |
1.3 |
-3.5 |
-4½ |
½ |
-4.0 |
-9.9 |
-11.9 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
14.3 |
15.4 |
.. |
| Former GDR |
1.7 |
2.0 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
7.0 |
7.6 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
19.4 |
17.4 |
16.8 |
Source: National statistics; CIS Statistical Committee; direct
communications from national statistical offices to UN/ECE secretariat.
Note: Aggregates are UN/ECE secretariat calculations, using PPPs
obtained from the 1996 European Comparison Programme. Output measures are in real terms
(constant prices). Forecasts are those of national conjunctural institutes or government
forecasts associated with the central budget formulation. Industrial output refers to
gross output, not the contribution of industry to GDP. Inflation refers to changes in the
consumer price index. Unemployment generally refers to registered unemployment at the end
of the period (with the exceptions of the Russian Federation, where it is the Goskomstat
estimate according to the ILO definition, and Estonia where it refers to job seekers).
Aggregates shown are: Eastern Europe (the 12 countries below that line), with
sub-aggregates CETE-5 (central European transition economies: Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) and SETE-7 (south European transition
economies: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, The former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Yugoslavia); Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania); and CIS (12 member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent
States).
a June 1999
over June 1998.
b Data
reported by the Statistical Office of the Federation; these exclude the area of Republika
Srpska.
c Gross
material product instead of GDP.
d Excluding
Transdniestria.
TABLE 1.2.2
International
trade and external balances of the ECE transition economies, 1997-1999
(Rates of change and shares, per
cent)
| |
Merchandise exports in dollars (growth rates) |
Merchandise imports in dollars (growth rates) |
Trade balances (per cent of GDP) |
Current account (per cent of GDP) |
| |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 a |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 a |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 a |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 a |
| Eastern Europe b |
6.6 |
9.4 |
-4.5 |
6.4 |
9.2 |
-5.6 |
-10.3 |
-10.0 |
-9.5 |
-4.3 |
-4.6 |
-5.6 |
| Albania |
-35.6 |
50.9 |
69.5 |
-32.1 |
28.2 |
14.2 |
-21.1 |
-19.2 |
-15.9 |
-11.9 |
-1.5 |
1.8 |
| Bosnia and
Herzegovina |
232.1 |
134.5 |
22.6 |
29.2 |
30.2 |
-18.8 |
-40.8 |
-38.4 |
-26.2 |
-31.7 |
-26.8 |
-37.1 c |
| Bulgaria |
1.0 |
-13.1 |
-21.7 |
-2.8 |
1.3 |
-1.0 |
0.1 |
-5.7 |
-13.6 |
4.2 |
-3.1 |
-10.2 |
| Croatia |
-7.6 |
8.9 |
-9.1 |
16.9 |
-7.9 |
-10.2 |
-24.3 |
-17.7 |
-17.5 |
-11.5 |
-7.1 |
-10.6 |
| Czech Republic |
4.0 |
15.7 |
0.7 |
-2.0 |
6.0 |
-1.3 |
-8.3 |
-4.3 |
-2.8 |
-6.1 |
-1.9 |
-0.1 |
| Hungary |
21.6 |
20.4 |
5.8 |
17.0 |
21.1 |
7.2 |
-4.7 |
-5.7 |
-6.6 |
-2.1 |
-4.8 |
-5.2 |
| Poland |
5.4 |
2.6 |
-8.1 |
13.9 |
10.9 |
-6.6 |
-11.6 |
-11.9 |
-11.6 |
-3.0 |
-4.3 |
-6.9 |
| Romania |
4.3 |
-1.6 |
-7.0 |
-1.4 |
4.8 |
-11.5 |
-8.2 |
-9.2 |
-7.7 |
-6.1 |
-7.8 |
-5.6 |
| Slovakia |
0.2 |
11.2 |
-6.7 |
-8.0 |
10.9 |
-13.3 |
-10.2 |
-10.7 |
-6.6 |
-10.0 |
-10.1 |
-7.9 |
| Slovenia |
0.7 |
8.1 |
-3.5 |
-0.6 |
7.8 |
3.1 |
-5.5 |
-5.4 |
-9.2 |
0.2 |
– |
-4.7 |
| The former
Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia |
2.8 |
11.0 |
-19.1 |
7.8 |
9.0 |
-22.2 |
-15.5 |
-17.0 |
-6.7 |
-7.5 |
-8.2 |
-2.3 |
| Yugoslavia |
45.0 |
6.8 |
-48.3 |
17.3 |
0.5 |
-51.8 |
-10.9 |
-12.2 |
.. |
-6.7 |
-7.9* |
.. |
| Baltic states |
23.1 |
3.5 |
-15.8 |
26.7 |
7.5 |
-18.2 |
-21.9 |
-22.4 |
-17.8 |
-9.5 |
-11.1 |
-9.7 |
| Estonia |
41.1 |
10.3 |
-10.3 |
37.4 |
7.8 |
-20.8 |
-32.5 |
-29.8 |
-19.5 |
-12.2 |
-9.2 |
-5.5 |
| Latvia |
15.9 |
8.3 |
-9.5 |
17.4 |
17.1 |
-11.8 |
-18.6 |
-21.5 |
-16.3 |
-6.1 |
-11.1 |
-9.3 |
| Lithuania |
15.1 |
-3.9 |
-23.5 |
23.8 |
2.6 |
-19.4 |
-18.6 |
-19.4 |
-18.0 |
-10.2 |
-12.1 |
-12.1 |
| CIS |
1.2 |
-13.3 |
-5.1 |
19.5 |
-12.0 |
-39.0 |
5.4 |
6.6 |
15.0 |
-0.4 |
-1.6 |
.. |
| Armenia c |
-11.9 |
-12.9 |
30.9 |
4.5 |
13.2 |
-7.0 |
-27.9 |
-29.1 |
-32.0 |
-27.9 |
-26.5 |
-37.7 d |
| Azerbaijan |
18.2 |
-7.2 |
53.7 |
-28.7 |
51.8 |
-6.2 |
-1.0 |
-7.3 |
-6.0 |
-23.1 |
-33.1 |
-28.6 |
| Belarus |
1.8 |
-0.7 |
35.9 |
21.2 |
4.3 |
-27.0 |
-7.1 |
-8.1 |
-0.3 |
-6.0 |
-7.1 |
0.6 |
| Georgia c |
45.9 |
-17.4 |
18.5 |
44.0 |
12.7 |
-49.6 |
-10.0 |
-12.0 |
-10.6 |
-10.1 |
-11.1 |
-2.7 |
| Kazakhstan |
28.7 |
-7.9 |
-9.4 |
52.0 |
13.8 |
-14.1 |
7.0 |
4.4 |
7.3 |
-3.6 |
-5.3 |
-8.3 d |
| Kyrgyzstan |
154.5 |
-0.7 |
-2.7 |
-22.2 |
46.8 |
-18.6 |
0.7 |
-7.4 |
-3.0 |
-7.8 |
-23.4 |
-15.7 d |
| Republic of Moldova |
5.9 |
-23.9 |
3.2 |
35.0 |
3.0 |
-60.1 |
-15.6 |
-23.2 |
-11.6 |
-13.9 |
-20.4 |
-2.5 |
| Russian Federation |
-1.2 |
-15.8 |
-6.3 |
23.2 |
-16.8 |
-44.7 |
6.8 |
9.2 |
20.0 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
11.5 |
| Tajikistan |
7.7 |
-16.7 |
-7.9 |
-6.0 |
-1.2 |
-4.7 |
22.2 |
9.8 |
13.2 |
-6.5 |
-10.6 |
.. |
| Turkmenistan |
-50.8 |
47.3 |
36.6 |
18.0 |
-0.2 |
49.1 |
-8.6 |
-3.2 |
-6.0 |
-21.6 |
-34.2 |
– c |
| Ukraine |
23.6 |
-2.4 |
-7.7 |
12.8 |
-6.5 |
-40.5 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
12.7 |
-2.7 |
-3.1 |
3.1 |
| Uzbekistan e |
-19.0 |
-9.8 |
-8.0 |
-4.6 |
-26.0 |
-7.3 |
-2.4 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
-4.0 |
-0.4 |
.. |
| Total above b |
4.8 |
-0.6 |
-5.2 |
10.7 |
3.3 |
-14.9 |
-1.4 |
-2.4 |
-0.3 |
-2.1 |
-3.2 |
.. |
| Memorandum items: |
| CETE-5 |
7.1 |
11.6 |
-2.0 |
6.5 |
11.4 |
-2.5 |
-9.3 |
-9.0 |
-8.6 |
-3.7 |
-4.1 |
-5.3 |
| SETE-7 b |
4.7 |
1.1 |
-15.5 |
6.0 |
2.1 |
-16.5 |
-13.1 |
-12.9 |
-13.1 |
-6.5 |
-6.6 |
-7.4 |
Source: National statistics; CIS Statistical Committee; direct
communications from national statistical offices to UN/ECE secretariat; IMF; UN/ECE
secretariat calculations.
Note: Foreign trade growth is measured in current dollar values. Trade and
current account balances are related to GDP at current prices, converted from national
currencies at current dollar exchange rates. Trade values include the "new
trade" among the successor states of former Czechoslovakia and the former SFR of
Yugoslavia, but not intra-CIS trade. Current-price GDP values for the first half of 1999
are in some cases estimated from reported real growth rates and consumer price indices. On
regional aggregates, see the note to table 1.2.1.
a January-June.
b Aggregates of current account balances exclude Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Yugoslavia.
c Current account excludes official transfers.
d January-March 1999.
e Growth rates for 1998 and 1999 are based respectively on
CIS Statistical Committee estimates for merchandise trade values in 1998 and on TACIS
estimates for January-June 1998 and 1999.
TABLE
1.2.7
Foreign trade of
the ECE transition economies by direction, 1997-1999
(Value in billion
dollars, growth rates in per cent) a
| |
Exports |
Imports |
| |
Value |
Growth rates |
Value |
Growth rates |
| Country or country group b |
1998 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 c |
1998 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 c |
| Eastern Europe, to and from: d |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| World |
112.9 |
5.0 |
9.3 |
-3.3 |
150.4 |
5.7 |
9.3 |
-3.5 |
| ECE transition economies |
26.2 |
6.6 |
-5.2 |
-26.3 |
28.8 |
-0.1 |
-3.8 |
-14.1 |
| CIS |
3.9 |
14.3 |
-24.9 |
-57.1 |
8.7 |
-3.6 |
-16.9 |
-24.1 |
| Baltic states |
0.4 |
27.0 |
9.1 |
-13.6 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
20.4 |
27.5 |
| Eastern Europe e |
16.2 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
-10.9 |
13.8 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
-6.9 |
| Developed market
economies |
79.9 |
6.8 |
17.0 |
5.2 |
107.4 |
7.5 |
13.5 |
-0.6 |
| European Union |
73.5 |
6.5 |
17.2 |
5.2 |
93.9 |
6.8 |
14.4 |
– |
| Developing economies |
6.8 |
-13.5 |
-8.1 |
-5.8 |
14.3 |
6.6 |
9.0 |
-2.7 |
| Baltic states, to and from: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| World |
8.8 |
23.1 |
3.4 |
-15.8 |
13.8 |
26.7 |
7.5 |
-18.2 |
| ECE transition economies |
3.7 |
19.1 |
-13.1 |
-42.5 |
4.3 |
14.9 |
-2.9 |
-17.2 |
| CIS |
2.3 |
19.4 |
-23.4 |
-60.3 |
2.7 |
9.2 |
-11.3 |
-23.3 |
| Baltic states |
1.2 |
25.1 |
11.8 |
-7.6 |
0.8 |
23.2 |
19.8 |
-8.3 |
| Developed market economies |
4.7 |
26.5 |
21.0 |
8.5 |
8.6 |
32.8 |
13.7 |
-17.4 |
| European Union |
4.2 |
24.5 |
20.1 |
10.0 |
7.4 |
30.5 |
12.0 |
-18.3 |
| Developing economies |
0.3 |
45.4 |
14.7 |
-16.0 |
0.8 |
48.9 |
7.0 |
-29.4 |
| Russian Federation, to and from: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| World |
71.3 |
-0.1 |
-16.2 |
-12.8 |
43.5 |
15.2 |
-17.9 |
-45.2 |
| Intra-CIS |
13.7 |
4.6 |
-17.9 |
-37.8 |
11.3 |
-2.2 |
-20.9 |
-46.6 |
| Non-CIS economies |
57.6 |
-1.2 |
-15.8 |
-6.3 |
32.3 |
23.2 |
-16.8 |
-44.7 |
| ECE transition economies |
10.4 |
6.0 |
-21.9 |
-17.8 |
3.9 |
34.4 |
-27.7 |
-60.6 |
| Baltic states |
2.3 |
17.4 |
-28.0 |
-11.0 |
0.7 |
61.9 |
-33.4 |
-69.6 |
| Eastern Europe |
8.2 |
3.0 |
-20.0 |
-19.6 |
3.2 |
29.2 |
-26.3 |
-58.6 |
| Developed market economies |
34.6 |
-0.2 |
-13.8 |
-9.0 |
22.0 |
24.1 |
-17.0 |
-44.2 |
| European Union |
23.2 |
2.4 |
-17.1 |
-13.2 |
15.7 |
23.4 |
-19.6 |
-42.7 |
| Developing economies |
12.6 |
-9.0 |
-15.8 |
11.8 |
6.4 |
13.0 |
-7.8 |
-36.4 |
| Other CIS economies, to and from: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| World |
31.6 |
3.5 |
-12.9 |
-17.4 |
37.2 |
2.9 |
-8.7 |
-25.8 |
| Intra-CIS |
13.7 |
-3.2 |
-22.0 |
-35.6 |
19.1 |
-3.7 |
-14.3 |
-25.1 |
| Non-CIS economies |
17.9 |
10.8 |
-4.4 |
-1.6 |
18.1 |
12.3 |
-1.9 |
-26.7 |
| ECE transition
economies, to and from: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| World |
227.8 |
3.6 |
-3.5 |
-9.4 |
251.8 |
8.3 |
0.5 |
-17.3 |
Source: National statistics and direct communications from national statistical offices
to UN/ECE secretariat; for the Russian Federation, State Customs Committee data; for other
CIS economies, CIS Interstate Statistical Committee data.
Note: There were changes in the methodology of foreign trade reporting in several
transition economies in 1996-1998. Starting 1998, Slovakia reports foreign trade flows
according to the new methodology (including imports for inward processing and exports
after processing). The Czech Republic has recently revised its export and import figures
back to 1994; however, these revisions are not reflected in the east European aggregate
above because the revised data by destination are not yet available. For details on
changes prior to 1998 see UN/ECE, Economic Bulletin for Europe, Vol. 48 (1996) and
Vol. 49 (1997).
a Growth
rates are calculated in dollar values.
b "Eastern Europe" refers to Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. For lack of adequate data, the
trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Yugoslavia
is not covered. The partner country grouping has been revised recently (subsequent changes
back to 1980 were made also in appendix table B.13) following the changes in the national
statistical sources. Thus, the earlier reported "Transition economies" group is
now replaced by "ECE transition economies", which covers the east European
countries, including the successor states of the former SFR of Yugoslavia, the Baltic
states and the CIS. "Developed market economies" excludes Turkey and includes
Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.
c January-June
over same period of 1998.
d Revisions
for Czech Republic included; 1998 value and growth rates include Polish figures according
to the previous customs declaration system.
e Including
Bosnia and Herzegovina, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Yugoslavia.