Geneva, 8 October 1999
ECE/GEN/99/24
AVOIDING A HUMANITARIAN DISASTER
IN SERBIA THIS WINTER
A statement by Mr. Yves Berthelot,
Executive Secretary of the
United Nations Economic Commission for
Europe
One effect of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia earlier this year was
to destroy key parts of the electricity transmission system, to severely damage public
heating plants, as well as oil refineries, storage and distribution facilities. There are
major shortfalls in the supplies of coal and natural gas, and oil imports are subject to
an EU embargo. Without prompt political decisions there is a very high probability of a
major humanitarian drama occurring in Serbia this winter. It would be highly desirable if,
for a change, action could be taken in good time to prevent it.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) estimates that electricity supply could fall some 30 per cent below
winter needs and that the shortages could reach 40-50 per cent depending on the severity
of the winter and on the frequency of breakdowns in the transmission system. Since more
than half of Serbian households use electric power for heating and another 20 per cent or
so rely on district heating systems based on oil, and given that temperatures average
around zero degrees for much of the winter and often fall well below, the risks of the
energy crisis turning into a humanitarian disaster this winter are obvious. Old people,
children, and refugees will be especially vulnerable and the hostility of the population
towards the European Union will be increased rather than reduced.
There is clearly a need for rapid action to avoid such an outcome.
Emergency supplies of heating oil need to be organized quickly and power generators need
to be supplied to schools, hospitals, water supply facilities, and other crucial services;
and spare parts are needed to repair and maintain power plants and transmission systems.
In ECE our Gas Centre has set up a task force on the Rebuilding of the Yugoslav Energy
Market in order to coordinate the activities of companies which are members of the Centre.
At its second meeting in September, the Task Force concluded that the gas infrastructure had not suffered serious damage although there was concern about the safety
of the pipeline at normal pressure. Perhaps more critical is the financial state of the
Yugoslav gas industry - it must pay Russia for the gas and Hungary for transit - and the
fact that gas is included in the EU embargo on petroleum and petroleum products.
The UN Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs has already set
out a list of measures, covering the entire energy sector, that need to be taken to
prevent a humanitarian crisis in Serbia this winter. European Union ministers are also
well aware of the risks, but when Foreign Ministers met in early September they were
concerned that action on their part, especially a lifting of the EU ban on oil exports to
Serbia, might bolster the existing government. So far they have agreed to provide
"humanitarian assistance", narrowly defined, but as my colleagues in the United
Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs have remarked, what is the
point of providing food and medicine to people who are freezing to death?
Various attempts to find a way out of this impasse have been made
and one, elaborated by Group-17, has been presented informally in the last week to the
Foreign Ministers of France, Finland, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.(1)
The plan, "Energy for Democracy", would involve setting
up a special Agency to import oil through small private companies, not the state-owned
monopoly, and to organize distribution through the mayors of Serbia. Contracts would be
signed by the mayors and payment made from frozen Serbian accounts abroad. A marketing
campaign will be mounted to ensure that the public is aware that the initiative is coming
from democratic groups in civil society and to forestall any attempts by others to disrupt
supplies or appropriate them for other uses. Moreover, the standard argument against
lifting the oil embargo, that the government will simply use it to free resources for
other purposes, does not hold because the government is not in any case planning to spend
money on supplying the population with energy this winter. An executive board will oversee
the programme and it is proposed that it will consist of 4 members: one from G-17, one
from the Association of Free Towns and Municipalities, one from the Serbian Orthodox
Church and, significantly, a representative of the European Union.
This proposal, in my opinion, is a constructive and responsible
attempt both to confront the risk of a disaster occurring this winter and to meet the
political concerns of members of the European Union; but to obtain general support I must
underline that the plan must be applied without discrimination to all residents in Serbia.
When the Council of the Union meets early next week in Luxembourg I very much hope
that it will agree to support such initiatives to ensure energy supplies to all the people
of Serbia. Some countries have already indicated their support for emergency action to
ease the embargo on exports of heating oil. Not only will it help to avoid severe hardship
among the ordinary Serbian people but it will also help to restore confidence in their own
capacity for action. As such it may constitute a first step towards restoring normal
relations between Yugoslavia and the European Union, and, eventually, ending the isolation
of Yugoslavia which, if continued indefinitely, will have negative effects on security and
economic development throughout the entire region of south east Europe.
For further information, please contact:
Information Unit
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)
Palais des Nations, Room 356
CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: +41 22 917 44 44
Fax: +41 22 917 05 05
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.unece.org/press/press_h.htm
1 Group-17 is a responsible group of
professional economists, based in Belgrade, with a firm commitment to the development of a
market economy and democratic institutions in Yugoslavia. It seeks to rebuild Yugoslavia's
relations with the European Union and represents a calm and rational voice from civil
society.