Geneva, 20 April 1999
ECE/GEN/99/1
ECONOMIC
IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION AGEING IN THE UN/ECE
REGION
The UN/ECE Spring
Seminar
3 May 1999
On 3 May 1999, the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) will hold its
Spring Seminar which will focus on the economic implications of
population ageing in the UN/ECE region. Four themes will be
discussed:
- The economic
consequences of population ageing and the
macroeconomics of pension reform;
- Pension reform in
market economies;
- Reforming pension
systems in the transition economies: problems and
policies within a broader programme of
transformation;
- What are the
implications for pension reforms of the global
financial and economic crisis?
The session on "Economic consequences of population ageing and
the macroeconomics of pension reform" will consider the impact of population ageing on
key economic variables, such as savings, fixed investment,
productivity and labour force participation, and thus economic
growth and future prosperity. It will address such questions as:
Have state pension systems crowded out private spending or other,
more urgent, public spending? Have they or will they threaten
fiscal stability in developed market economies? Is it really the
case that unfunded public pension schemes have reduced national
saving? Can private saving schemes alter this? In sum, do
different pension schemes actually offer major macroeconomic
choices? Do they have sharply differing implications for overall
fiscal policy? To what extent can we project that future
prosperity will depend on decisions taken now on old-age
security?
This session will open with the
presentation of a paper by John Eatwell (Professor of Economics
and President of Queens' College, University of Cambridge). Colin Gillion
(Director, Social Security Dept., ILO); Domenico Mario Nuti
(Professor, University of Rome "La Sapienza" and London Business School); and Tomas Weiss
(Deputy Head of Economics Division, Federal Ministry of Labour
and Social Affairs, Bonn) will act as discussants.
The session on "Pension reform in market economies" will examine the most recent developments and
debates on pension reform in western Europe and North America. It
will look at, inter alia, subjects such as alternative
approaches to pension reform, and the transition to a new system;
public pensions and international competitiveness; risks of
mid-career economic and demographic changes. The session will
also review microeconomic issues such as the reasons for creating
mandatory retirement programmes, the search for new paradigms and
the possibility of a new consensus.
Lawrence Thompson (Senior
Fellow, Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.) will present a paper.
Johann K. Brunner (Professor, University of Linz);
Joakim Palme (Swedish Institute for Social Research,
University of Stockholm); and Andras Uthoff (Regional Adviser,
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) will
participate as discussants.
The session on "Reforming pension systems in the transition
economies: problems and policies within a broader programme of
transformation" will examine the problems of pension arrangements
in the transition countries and the acute and unusual issues for
pension reform which are posed by systemic transformation, as
well as those common to most countries in the region. It is
expected that the debate will bring out the variation in country
experiences, which has been quite large.
Maria Augusztinovics (Institute
of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) will present a
paper. Jerzy Hausner (Professor, Academy of Economic Science,
Cracow); Romas Lazutka (Director, Institute of Social and
Economic Research, Vilnius); and Paul Wachtel (Professor, Stern
School of Business, New York University) will be discussants.
A panel discussion on "What are the implications for pension reforms
of the global financial and economic crisis?" will consider whether the financial turmoil since
mid-1997 has affected the nature of the debate, particularly on
the role of private pension funds. What has been, and could be,
their global impact? What problems of regulation, national and
global, do they pose? What risk differences are there between "pay-as-you-go" and fully-funded systems, and how is the balance
of risks likely to change in 1999? What indications do we have of
the way in which present pension arrangements and differential
rates of ageing in various parts of the world have affected stock
market fluctuations and the world financial system?
Jean-Michel Charpin
(Commissaire, Commissariat général du Plan, Paris) will chair
the panel. JiÍí Rusnok (Deputy Minister of Labour,
responsible for Social Insurance and Income Policy, Czech
Republic); Brigitte Granville (Head, International Economics
Programme, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, and
Centre for Advanced International Studies, Moscow); Tatyana
Maleva (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moscow); and Daniel Wydler
(Director, Banque Pictet et Cie., Geneva) will participate in the
panel.
The Seminar is open to the
public.
For further information
please contact:
Economic Analysis
Division
United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)
Palais des Nations
CH B 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: (+41 22) 917 27 18
Fax: (+41 22) 917 03 09
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.unece.org/ead/ead_h.htm