EUROPEAN POPULATION PREDICTED TO BE 'MARGINALISED' IN THE
2000s
7 December 1998
Third World to Absorb Projected 3 Billion Rise
Budapest, 7 December 1998. Europe is expected to be
'demographically marginalised' with the dawning of the new
millennium. Now making up a seventh of all humanity, its share of
the world population will decline sharply by the year 2025.
Population decline, currently underway in Eastern Europe, is
expected to spread throughout the continent. The developing world
will absorb almost all of the 3 billion increase projected then
for the earth.
These are among some of the predictions made in the background
papers presented at the 3-day Regional Population Meeting (RPM),
which opened today. Some 250 government representatives and
population experts from about 45 countries are attending at
the invitation of the host country, Hungary, the United Nations
Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) and the United Nations
Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA).
The aim of the meeting is to debate the rapidly changing
demographic scene in this part of the world, including recent
declines in birth rates and increases in death rates in parts of
the former Soviet Union. Current policies impacting on and/or
responding to these population developments - such as family,
health and migration policies - will be examined and proposals
for future improvements will be made.
Immigration, which reached record levels in the early 1990s,
accounts for half of the growth in European populations. Counting
asylum seekers and illegal immigrants as well, estimates for
Europe put at about 1 million yearly the number taken in, mainly
by Western countries. The magnitude of that figure has placed the
integration of foreigners and immigration control at the top of
many a political agenda.
The birth rates in virtually all countries of the region are
below the level needed for the replacement of generations, and
show no sign of recovery. This is the prime cause of the
emergence of the decline in Europe's populations. The lowest
birth rates are registered in Southern European countries,
followed by the Russian Federation and several Eastern European
countries, a consequence of the fall of communism.
Indeed, fewer babies combined with longer lives are the
hallmarks of present-day Europe. Over the past few decades,
longevity has increased markedly in Western countries. Life
expectancy at birth of 80 years for women and 75 years for men is
fast becoming the norm in Western Europe. Many countries of
Eastern Europe, on the other hand, have experienced increases in
mortality since the fall of communism. There, life expectancy at
birth is lower by about 8 years for both men and women.
The 3 longest living populations are the Swedes, who live up
to age 78.9; the Swiss, to 78.7; and the Icelanders, to 78.3.
Among other figures cited are those for the Italians and
Canadians, 78.1 each; the French and Austrians, 77.0 each;
the British, 76.5; the Americans, 75.8; the Czech, 74.0; and the
Hungarians, 70.6.
The numbers and shares of older persons in Europe's
populations continue to rise, placing strains on government
budgets. At present, Sweden tops the list of 24 countries, mainly
Western, with the highest relative number of men and women aged
65 years or over, reporting a total of 17.3 per cent in 1996.
Next comes Belgium with 16.1 per cent, followed by Norway (15.9),
Germany, Greece and Italy (15.8), and the United Kingdom (15.7).
The 1996 figure for Hungary is 14.2 per cent.
The number of centenarians has been rising also, with 3,890 -
the most - reported in 1990 by England and Wales. There were
3,853 of them in France and 2,528 in West Germany. Among other
figures for around 1996 cited in the background papers are:
Births. In 10 Eastern European countries, there were
2.9 million births recorded, including 1.3 million in Russia
alone. In 7 Western countries, there were 2 million births; in 10
Southern and 10 Northern countries, 1.4 million each. In Canada
and United States together, there were 4.2 million births.
Marriages. In Eastern Europe, there were 2.4 million
marriages recorded; in Western Europe, 925,000; in Southern
Europe, 745,000; in Northern Europe, 500,000. In Canada and
United States together, there were 2.4 million marriages.
Divorces. In Eastern Europe, 1 million; in Western
Europe, 350,000; in Northern Europe, 250,000; in Southern Europe,
100,000. In Canada and United States together, there were
1.3 million births.
Experts attribute the new demographic patterns, in particular
the drop in births, to lifestyle changes such as divorce,
non-marital cohabitation, abortion and unwed motherhood. Once
regarded as 'immoral', these lifestyles are becoming more and
more accepted and common place.
For more details, see the background papers by: Mr. D. Coleman (Oxford, United Kingdom); Mr. G. Calot
(Paris, France); Mr. P. Józan (Budapest, Hungary); Mr. J. Schmid (Bamberg, Germany); and, Mr.
J. Salt (London, United Kingdom).
For further information, please contact:
Mr.
Miroslav Macura
Chief, Population Activities Unit Economic Analysis Division
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)
Palais des Nations
CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: ++ (4122) 917 27 64
Fax: ++ (4122) 917 01 01
E-mail: [email protected] |
Ms.
Yumiko Mochizuki-Sternberg
Population Activities Unit
Economic Analysis Division
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE)
Palais des Nations
CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: ++ (4122) 917 12 70
Fax: ++ (4122) 917 01 07
E-mail: [email protected] |