ROUND TABLE ON LONG TERM
STRATEGIES TO ACHIEVE GOALS SET FORTH IN KYOTO
19 October 1998
At the eighth session of the Committee on
Sustainable Energy of the United Nations Economic Commission
for Europe (UN/ECE), a Round Table on "Long Term Strategies
to Achieve the Goals Set Forth in Kyoto" was held. This
session was chaired by Mr. Michael Jefferson, Deputy General
Secretary of the World Energy Council. Panellists included:
Mr. Ron Bowes, Associate Deputy
Assistant Secretary, Department of Energy, USA
Mr. Silver Hercberg, Head of Department,
Electricité de France, France
Mr. Ron Knapp, Chief Executive, World Coal
Institute, United Kingdom
Mr. Sergii Kuz'menko, Vice-Minister of Energy,
Ukraine
Mr. Vitaly Matsarski, United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Mr. Neculai Pavlovschi, Adviser to the General
Director, ROMGAS, Romania
Forward to Buenos Aires
In Kyoto at the Third Conference of Parties
(COP3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Annex-I signatory countries -- the industrialized
countries and transition countries, mainly in central and eastern
Europe -- committed themselves to legally binding cuts of
greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2008-2012 compared with
the 1990 base year. The Kyoto Protocol introduced international
mechanisms by which goals are to be achieved: international
emissions trading, and means by which cooperation can be carried
out among developed countries and between developed and
developing countries: joint implementation of projects and the
"Clean Development Mechanism".
COP-4 of the Climate Convention, to be held in
Buenos Aires in November, will have to face up to a host of
challenges. Among the unresolved issues, under the Kyoto
Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, are how to ensure credits
for emissions reductions which are above and beyond the
reductions that would have taken place in the absence of the
Protocol. This will be the subject of further negotiations. The
role of developing country participation in emission limitations
is also seen as a key issue by many industrialized countries.
The Key Role of ECE Countries
ECE countries in 1991 accounted for about
4.9 billion tonnes of carbon emissions from fossil fuel
burning and other industrial processes, out of a world total of
6.2 billions of tonnes. It is therefore clear that the full
cooperation of ECE countries is essential in achieving progress
in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. It is recalled that carbon
dioxide alone accounts for over fifty percent of all greenhouse
gases.
Magnitude of the Problem
Mr. George Kowalski, ECE Energy Division
Director, stated that, at present, the two main options for
emissions cuts were reducing the carbon intensity of fuels and
accelerating the rate of improvement of energy intensity change.
To stabilize or reduce energy-related CO2 emissions
over the foreseeable future in industrialized countries will
require a massive shift in the type of energy consumed, i.e. a
strong reduction in the role of fossil fuels in primary energy,
and at the same time, an acceleration of energy intensity change
rates far beyond historical experience. The required long-term
reduction in emissions would be of the order of 50% to 70% from
present rates in order to stabilize CO2 concentrations
at an acceptable level, i.e. one without undue environmental
risk. This range of eventual emissions reduction contrasts with
the 5% cuts which were agreed in Kyoto and therefore points to
the long and difficult road ahead. The Kyoto Protocol was said to
be a first step in emissions reductions but certainly not the
last.
PANEL DISCUSSION
Steps Towards a Solution -- "Minimum
Regrets Measures"
The Panel's Chairman emphasized that the
solution to growing CO2 emissions involved the
appropriate response of energy industries (producers,
distributors and transmitters of energy) and end-use consumers
including that of non-commercial energy users.
A key problem foreseen is the likelihood that
the industrialized countries will not reach their Kyoto targets.
But the industrialized countries were said to have a moral
responsibility in taking the lead, although sooner or later the
need for the developing countries to play a role in emissions
reductions was seen as essential.
With emissions trading, global Kyoto targets
might be feasible provided that funds generated from emissions
trading were earmarked for emission reduction projects. Therefore
the emission trading mechanism is seen as a key to the process of
emissions reductions. The range of cost-effective measures for
reducing emissions growth should be adopted sooner rather than
later as a precautionary measure as the difficulties of returning
to the appropriate emissions path might be enormously costly if
overshooting takes place. But the emission reduction measures
require considerable financing, a particular difficulty for the
developing countries.
The Chairman cited the conclusion of the 17th
World Energy Council Congress in Houston in September in which
the "minimum regrets" approach was endorsed in order
"to minimize the collective risk... Options to lower
greenhouse gas emissions are many, and, for the most part, are
not controversial; they should be identified, prioritised and
actions taken. Joint implementation and the Clean Development
Mechanism programmes can then be structured to achieve reductions
with minimal to tolerable disruptions economically and
politically."
Strategies Towards CO2 Emissions Reductions
The key role of industry was stressed. One
example given was the use of CO2 injection/recovery
techniques in gas and oil production. Another example cited was
the use of emission trading within companies or between
companies.
The role of electricity was seen as a key with
no emissions associated with electricity end-use. Prospects of
growing world energy efficiency was stated to depend on continued
penetration of electricity, particularly among developing
countries which are likely to have rates of GDP growth above the
world average. But to reduce emissions from electricity
generation, the need to shift away from fossil fuels was pointed
out. Notwithstanding any shifts in the composition of primary
energy, there will be a need for fossil fuels for many decades to
provide for growing energy demand, despite the development of
alternative fuels. Therefore the need to transfer technologies to
developing countries was seen as essential, in particular for
power plants.
The INTERNET was seen as a specific means for
transferring of technologies and information dispersal both to
consumers and producers of energy. One example for consumers was
information on "green power" which, despite its
marginally higher cost, might be acceptable to an informed and
concerned population.
Other Problems Along the Way — Will
"Hot Air" Disappear?
The drift in energy intensive industries from
high cost to low cost countries might well be accelerated by the
Kyoto Protocol. Closely connected with this problem is the timing
of ratification of the main group of developed countries--the EU,
Japan and the United States. Simultaneous ratification would
reduce the chances of loss of competitivity within key developed
countries. The effect on energy industries, particularly coal,
was seen to be paramount.
The Coal Response
The need to modernize the industry was seen as
paramount and the response of the industry through all three
mechanisms of the Protocol (emissions trading, Joint
Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism) were regarded
as essential to realize efficiency gains. With a return to growth
in the transition countries, the need to realize energy
efficiency improvements was emphasised. If sufficient energy
efficiency gains do not materialise, then most of the potential
for emission trading with these countries will evaporate with GDP
growth: "hot air" will vaporise.