The fourth consecutive year of boombing robot investissement in the United States
16 11 October 1996
According to a new annual publication entitled World Industrial
Robots 1996 prepared by the United Nations Economic Commission
for Europe (UN/ECE) and the International Federation of Robotics
(IFR).1
1995 Key US data
Booming robot market - the third consecutive year
Record sales: 10,200 units, +34%
Record sales value: $900 million, +30%
Stock of operational robots: some 66,000 units
1996 First half US data
New orders: +13% over 1995, first half, in units and
+20% in values
Shipments: -7% over 1995, first half, in units and -2% in values
Shipments for the full year are forecast to exceed
$1 billion for the first time ever
Surging sales in 1993-1995
In the period 1993-1995, robot sales in the United States
experienced an unprecedented boom. In terms of value, United
States-based robotics companies posted a hefty 30% increase in
shipments in 1995, compared with 23% in both 1993 and 1994,
reaching about $900 million. In terms of units, shipments
increased by 34% in 1995, compared with 26% in 1994 and 33% in
1993, and reached 10,200 units, the highest figure ever (see
table 1 and figures 1 and 2).
These performance figures are even more impressive when seen in
the light of the fact that the unit growth in the world market
was 26% in 1995, a mere 7% in 1994 and flat in 1993. Another
striking comparison is that with Japan where robot investment
between 1990 and 1994 plummeted by more than 50%. In 1995,
however, a recovery of 23% over the 1994 level was recorded.
Record new orders in the first half of 1996
In view of the continued strong growth in the American economy
with double-digit increases in gross fixed capital formation,
1996 is expected to be another record year for the robot
business. In this context it is interesting to note that in
recent years ECE and IFR have underestimated the forecasts of
robot sales in the United States.
United States-based robotics companies received more orders in
the second quarter of 1996 than in any quarter in history. A
total of 4,392 robots valued at $336 million were ordered in the
second quarter, an increase of 86% in units and 68% in values
over the same period in 1995.
For the first six months of 1996, orders amounted to 6,921 units
valued at $613 million, putting the industry on track to break
the $1 billion mark for the first time. The increase over the
same period in 1995 was 13% in units and 20% in values (see table
2 and figures 3 and 4).
Shipments through June 1996 totalled 4,663 units valued at $419
million, a decline of 7% in units and 2% in values from 1995's
record-setting pace. However, the backlog of unfilled orders
through June was up nearly 20% in units and 30% in values,
indicating that shipments should be strong in the second half of
the year.
Size of the operational stock of robots
At the end of 1995, the operational robot stock in the United
States is estimated to have reached approximately 66,000 units,
representing an increase of 16% over 1994. Total accumulated
yearly sales of robots in the United States since the end of the
1960s are estimated at some 74,000 units.
Average unit value of robots
Between 1984 and 1990, the unit value of robots shipped almost
doubled, from $65,000 to $112,000 (in current prices). Since
then, however, the unit value has fallen continuously, and
amounted to $88,000 in 1995.
Major users
The automotive industry was the largest customer for robots,
accounting for at least 50% of the installed base, followed by
industries such as off-road vehicles, electronics, food,
pharmaceuticals, appliances, aerospace and metal fabrication.
Major application areas
Of the 1995 supply, in terms of units, 50% were welding robots. Arc welding accounted for 16% and spot welding for 34%, shares
which have been stable in the last three years. Machine
loading/unloading including material handling was the second
largest application area taking 29% of the total 1995 supply
while assembly accounted for 9%.
Estimate of the worldwide operational stock of industrial robots
Since robots started to be introduced in industry at the end of
the 1960s, total accumulated yearly sales amounted, at the end of
1995, to some 790,000 units. Many of the early robots have by
now been taken out of service. The stock of industrial robots in
operation is therefore lower. ECE and IFR estimate the total
worldwide stock of operational industrial robots at the end of
1995 at just under 650,000 units compared with about 610,000
units at the end of 1994, representing an increase of 6% over
1994.
The value of the world robot market in 1990-1995
In 1990, the world market can be estimated at $7.4 billion. In
the trough year of 1993, the world market had fallen to $3.7
billion. It increased slightly to $4.3 billion in 1994. In 1995, the world market surged to some $5.7 billion.
The sharp fall in the world market between 1990 and 1993 was
mainly caused by the Japanese market, which plummeted from $5.2
billion in 1990 to $1.8 billion in both 1993 and 1994. In 1995,
the Japanese market increased by an estimated 36% to $2.5
billion. Its share of the world market fell from an estimated 71%
in 1990 to about 43% in 1994. It increased slightly to 44% in
1995. The market in the United States, on the other hand,
increased both in nominal and relative terms, from $485 million
in 1990 to almost $900 million in 1995 and from almost 7% of the
world market to 16%.
Degree of concentration in the robot industry
In the 1980s the robot industry was dominated by a large number
of small firms. Through acquisitions, mergers and bankruptcy the
number of firms has been significantly reduced. In 1995, three
of the world's largest robot producers had combined sales of
about $1.85 billion, which represented about 33% of total world
sales of robots. In 1990, the same firms accounted for only some
7% of total world sales.
Forecasts for 1996-1999
Continued booming markets in the United States and western
Europe, which started already in 1993, and a recovered Japanese
market will, according to ECE/IFR forecasts, result in impressive growth in the world market in 1996 of about 20% over the 1995
level. In 1997-1999 it is forecast to drop slowly to about 15%
per year. In terms of units the world market is estimated to
increase from about 75,500 units in 1995 to over 90,000 units in
1996 and to about 145,000 in 1999 (see table 3 and figure 5).
In the period 1995-1999, the gross yearly supply in Japan is
forecast to more than double, from 36,500 to 77,000 units. In
this context it should be noted that a very large share of the
new robots supplied will replace older robots taken out of
operation. In 1995, for instance, the number of new robots
installed amounted to 36,500 while the operational robot stock
grew by only about 10,000 units, implying that more than two
thirds of the Japanese supply were replacement investments. In
the United States, supply in the period 1995-1999 is projected to
increase from 10,200 to 15,600 units, from 7,300 to 9,900 units
in Germany, from 3,100 to 4,300 units in Italy, from 1,400 to
2,100 units in France and from 800 to 1,600 units in the United
Kingdom. As concerns the United States, the 1996 half year
results support the optimistic growth prospects for that country.
In terms of units, it is estimated that the world stock of
operational industrial robots will increase from just under
650,000 units at the end of 1995 to just over one million units
at the end of 1999, of which about half in Japan, just under
100,000 in the United States, 76,000 in Germany, 33,000 in Italy,
17,000 in France and 11,000 in the United Kingdom. As, in the
same time, the number of personnel in industry in the best case
will be stable or only grow modestly, the density of robots,
measured as the number of robots per 1,000 workers, will continue
to surge.
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1 World Industrial Robots - Statistics 1983-1995 and Forecasts to 1999, United Nations
publication, Sales No. GV.E.96.0.26, ISBN 92-1-100726-7, $120. Available from Sales
Section, United Nations, Geneva or New York.