16 September 1996

1995 Key data for the world market

75,500 units, 26% over 1994$5.7 billion, 33% over 1994

Breakdown of the world robot market: Japan $2.5 billion (+36%), USA a record $900 million (+30%), Germany, Italy, France and United Kingdom together $1 billion (+36%)

Average price of a robot unit was $82,000, compared with $108,000 in 1991 (includes only the robot unit which on average makes up 30% of total system costs)

Three of the largest robot producers accounted for over 30% of the total market

The total stock of operational industrial robots is estimated at 650,000 units, +6% over the 1994 stock

Japan accounted for almost 60% of the stock while USA made up 10% and Germany, Italy, France and the United Kingdom for 15%

Sales in 1990-1995

Worldwide sales of industrial robots peaked in 1990, when they reached almost 81,000 units. Following the recession in 1991-1993, sales of robots plummeted to about 56,000 units in 1993. The world market recovered slightly in 1994 with sales of about 60,000 units. A more solid recovery came in 1995 when the market surged by 26% over 1994, reaching 75,500 units.

The large drop in sales between 1990 and 1994 is mainly explained by the sharp fall in the supply of robots in Japan, from 60,000 units to under 30,000 units. In 1995, the Japanese robot market started to recover. Some 36,500 new robots were installed, representing an increase of 23% over 1994. It is interesting to note that as many as two thirds of the robots supplied in 1995 were replacement investment.

As a result of the economic recovery, which in North America and the United Kingdom started already in 1992 but only in late 1993 in western Europe, 1994 was, with the notable exception of Japan and Italy, a booming year for robotics with record sales in many countries. In Sweden, for instance, sales in 1994 were 157% higher than in 1993. In the United Kingdom, the increase was 84%. In the United States, sales surged by 33% in 1993 and by 26% in 1994, which was a record year with 7,600 robots sold. In Germany and France, sales surged by the order of 20%.

With the exception of the United Kingdom this surge in sales continued in 1995. The market in the United States grew by 34%, the third consecutive year with growth exceeding 25%. Germany experienced growth of an impressive 43%, Italy with 30% and France with 16%. The only disappointment was the United Kingdom which saw its market fall by 27%. However, this should be seen in the light of the fact that 1994 was an exceptionally good year for robotics and that the 1995 supply figure after all was the third highest ever recorded.

For the eight smaller western European economies, sales increased by a modest 11% in 1995, compared with a staggering 41% in 1994. This sharp drop in growth was mainly caused by Sweden which saw its 1995 sales fall by 29% compared with 1994, which, however, should, just as was in the case of the United Kingdom, be seen in the light of the fact that 1994 was an exceptionally good year for robotics with, as was mentioned above, growth of a record 157%. Finland and Spain compensated this disappointing result of Sweden by recording impressive growth rates of 62% and 53%, respectively.

The robot market in eastern Europe was almost flat in 1995 compared with 1994. The four Asian countries Australia, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan province of China obtained a combined growth of 20%: almost 40% in Australia and the Republic of Korea and 10% in Taiwan province of China. As concerns the Republic of Korea, it should be noted that in 1995 it had become the world's fourth largest market.

Estimate of the worldwide operational stock of industrial robots

Since industrial robots started to be introduced in industry at the end of the 1960s, total accumulated yearly sales amounted, at the end of 1995, to some 790,000 units. Many of the early robots have by now been taken out of service. The stock of industrial robots in actual operation is therefore lower. ECE and IFR estimate the total worldwide stock of operational industrial robots at the end of 1995 at just under 650,000 units compared with about 610,000 units at the end of 1994, representing an increase of 6% over 1994.

In 1990, the world market can be estimated at $7.4 billion. In the trough year of 1993, the world market had fallen to $3.7 billion. It increased slightly to $4.3 billion in 1994. In 1995, the world market surged to some $5.7 billion.

Degree of concentration in the robot industry

In the 1980s the robots industry was dominated by a large number of small firms. Through acquisitions, mergers and bankruptcy the number of firms has been significantly reduced. In 1995, three of the world's largest robot producers had combined sales of about $1.85 billion, which represented about 33% of total world sales of robots. In 1990, the same firms accounted for only some 7% of total world sales.

Analysis of the development of robot density in selected countries

Japan has by far the highest density of advanced robots. In 1995, it amounted to 210 units (252 when counting all types of robots) per 10,000 persons engaged in manufacturing industries. Sweden had the second highest density with 54 units, followed by Germany with 52, Republic of Korea with 51 and Italy with 41 units. In the other countries in western Europe, Australia and the United States, the density ranged between about 15 and just under 40. The countries in central and eastern Europe had densities in the range of 2-5.

Figure 1 shows the development of robot densities, based on all types of robots, in the period 1981-1995 for selected countries. If the densities had been defined as numbers of robots per 10,000 production workers, they would have been at least twice as high as those presented above.

In most robot-using countries, welding is the predominant application area, particularly if it concerns major motor vehicle producing countries. Of total 1995 new robot installations, the highest shares for welding were: Hungary 73%, United States 52%, Spain 48%, Australia 47%, United Kingdom 46%, Taiwan province of China 45%, Republic of Korea 42%, Denmark 39%, Sweden 37%, Poland 36% and France and Germany 30%. It was a major application area in all the other countries except for Singapore, where welding accounted for less than 2% of the supply.

Assembly was the largest application area in Singapore, Japan and Finland, accounting for 84%, 47% and 26%, respectively, of the total new robot installations. In view of the size of the electronics industry in the two first mentioned countries, the high shares of assembly robots are not surprising. The share for Finland, on the other hand, is more surprising as it differs so significantly from the shares in other European countries.

The supply of robots in 1995 by major industrial branches

For every 10,000 people employed in the motor vehicle industry there were over 800 robots in Japan, about 400 in Italy, 300 in the United States, 250 in Sweden, 230 in Germany and just under 200 in France and the United Kingdom

The transport equipment industry, in particular the motor vehicle industry, is often regarded as the "vehicle" for robot diffusion. This is certainly so in Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Taiwan province of China and Australia. In those countries the transport equipment industry accounted for more than 40% of the 1995 supply. In Italy, Poland and Sweden the same industry received about 35% of the 1995 supply. Taking into account the fact that many subcontractors to the motor vehicle industry are classified in other branches, notably in the metal products industry, machine industry and electrical industry, the real importance of the motor vehicle industry is even higher.

The only major motor vehicle producing country with a share under 30% was Japan. In 1995, the transport equipment industry accounted for 23% of the net increase in the total robot stock.

The electrical machinery industry had a surprisingly low share of total robot stock except in Austria, Finland, Japan, Poland and Taiwan province of China. In all these countries this industry accounted for more than 20% of the 1995 supply. As concerns Japan, which is a world leader both in automotive and consumer electronics production, it seems as if the electrical industry is now the "vehicle" for diffusion, a role which the motor vehicle industry played in the 1970s and early 1980s. The motor vehicle industry is still, however, the second largest user branch.

The potential for expansion of robotics is enormous. If other industrialized countries were to approach the robot densities of Japan and if industry in general were to reach only half the robot density of the motor vehicle sector, the robot stock would increase manyfold and this is not counting the potential for robots in the service industries.

Forecasts for 1996-1999

Continued booming markets in the United States and western Europe, which started already in 1993, and a recovered Japanese market will, according to ECE/IFR forecasts, result in impressive growth in the world market in 1996 of about 20% over the 1995 level. In 1997-1999 it is forecast to drop slowly to about 15% per year. In terms of units the world market is estimated to increase from about 75,500 units in 1995 to over 90,000 units in 1996 and to about 145,000 in 1999 (see table 1 and figure 2 below).

In the period 1995-1999, the gross yearly supply in Japan is forecast to more than double, from 36,500 to 77,000 units. In this context it should be noted that a very large share of the new robots supplied will replace older robots taken out of operation. In 1995, for instance, the number of new robots installed amounted to 36,500 while the operational robot stock grew by only about 10,000 units, implying that more than two thirds of the Japanese supply were replacement investments. In the United States supply in the period 1995-1999 is projected to increase from 10,200 to 15,600 units, from 7,300 to 9,900 units in Germany, from 3,100 to 4,300 units in Italy, from 1,400 to 2,100 units in France and from 800 to 1,600 units in the United Kingdom. As concerns the United States, the 1996 half year result supports the optimist growth perspectives for that country.

The combined supply of Australia, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan province of China is forecast to grow from 11,200 units in 1995, of which, however, a larger share is simple robots than in Europe and North America, to 26,300 in 1999. As was previously shown, the Republic of Korea is now the world's fourth largest robot market both in terms of units and values.

In the eight smaller western European countries the market is forecast to increase from 3,100 units in 1995 to 5,200 units in 1999.

In terms of units, it is estimated that the world stock of operational industrial robots will increase from just under 650,000 units at the end of 1995 to just over one million units at the end of 1999, of which about half in Japan, just under 100,000 in the United States, 76,000 in Germany, 33,000 in Italy, 17,000 in France and 11,000 in the United Kingdom. As, in the same time, the number of personnel in industry in the best case will be stable or only grow modestly, the density of robots measured as the number of robots per 1,000 workers will continue to surge.

World Industrial Robots - Statistics 1983-1994 and Forecasts to 1998, Sales No. GV.E.96.0.26, New York and Geneva, 1995.

United Nations Sales Section, Palais des Nations,

CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Price $120.