CONTENTS |
| |
Page |
Explanatory notes |
vii |
Abbreviations |
viii |
About the main contributors to the Seminar |
viii |
Preface |
xi |
|
Part One - CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS |
| Chapter 1 |
THE
ECE ECONOMIES IN AUTUMN 1999 |
3 |
| 1.1 |
The global
context and the western market economies |
3 |
| |
(i) |
The global
context |
3 |
| |
(ii) |
Western Europe
and North America |
5 |
| 1.2 |
The transition
economies |
14 |
| |
(i) |
Introduction |
14 |
| |
(ii) |
Output and demand |
14 |
| |
(iii) |
Inflation |
22 |
| |
(iv) |
Unemployment |
25 |
| |
(v) |
International
trade |
27 |
| |
(vi) |
Current accounts
and external financing |
35 |
| |
(vii) |
Short-term
outlook |
40 |
|
Part Two - DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING AND THE REFORM OF PENSION SYSTEMS IN THE ECE REGION |
Papers from the ECE Spring Seminar, May 1999 |
| INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION by the Economic Analysis
Division, UN/ECE |
45 |
| Chapter 2 - THE ANATOMY OF THE PENSIONS "CRISIS" - John
Eatwell |
| 2.1 |
Introduction |
57 |
| 2.2 |
Financing
pensions |
59 |
| 2.3 |
The pensions
crisis |
61 |
| Discussion of chapter 2 |
| 2.A |
The
macroeconomics of pension reform by Colin Gillion |
62 |
| 2.B |
Alternative
pension systems by D. Mario Nuti |
64 |
| 2.C |
Lessons from
Germany on occupational pensions by Thomas Weiss |
66 |
| Chapter 3 - FORGING A NEW CONSENSUS ON PENSIONS - Lawrence H.
Thompson |
| 3.1 |
Introduction |
69 |
| 3.2 |
Economic impacts |
70 |
| |
(i) |
Why mandatory
retirement programmes are created |
70 |
| |
(ii) |
The economic cost
of pension programmes |
70 |
| |
(iii) |
Pensions and
savings |
71 |
| |
(iv) |
Pensions and
labour supply |
72 |
| |
(v) |
International
competitiveness |
73 |
| 3.3 |
Choosing among
the pension approaches |
73 |
| |
(i) |
Setting pension
contribution rates |
73 |
| |
(ii) |
Changing from one
approach to another |
74 |
| |
(iii) |
Mid-career
economic and demographic risks |
75 |
| |
(iv) |
Post-retirement
risk |
76 |
| 3.4 |
Advantages of a
mixed, multi-pillar system |
76 |
| |
(i) |
Spreading of
risks |
76 |
| |
(ii) |
Relative size of
the two pillars |
77 |
| 3.5 |
Closing
observations |
77 |
| Discussion of chapter 3 |
| 3.A |
Forging a new
consensus on pension reform: further considerations by Johann K. Brunner |
79 |
| 3.B |
Pensions and the
fight against poverty and inequality in old age by Joakim Palme |
80 |
| 3.C |
Forging a new
consensus on pensions: a Latin American perspective by Andras Uthoff |
83 |
| Chapter 4 - PENSION SYSTEMS AND REFORMS IN THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES
- Maria Augusztinovics |
| 4.1 |
Introduction and
overview |
89 |
| 4.2 |
Demographic
background |
89 |
| 4.3 |
Economic
background |
91 |
| 4.4 |
Pension economics |
92 |
| 4.5 |
Pension schemes |
96 |
| 4.6 |
Pension reforms |
100 |
| Discussion of chapter 4 |
| 4.A |
The merits of
fully-funded versus pay-as-you-go in transition economies by Jerzy Hausner |
103 |
| 4.B |
To improve or
privatize public pensions? by Romas Lazutka |
107 |
| 4.C |
Growth, pension
reform and capital markets in transition economies by Paul Wachtel |
110 |
|
Part Three - STATISTICAL APPENDIX |
| STATISTICAL APPENDIX |
115 |
LIST OF TABLES |
| Table |
|
Page |
1.1.1 |
Quarterly changes in real GDP, 1998-1999 |
6 |
1.1.2 |
Quarterly changes in real GDP and main expenditure items, 1998-1999 |
8 |
1.1.3 |
Real GDP in the developed market economies, 1996-1999 |
13 |
1.2.1 |
Basic economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1997-2000 |
16 |
1.2.2 |
International trade and external balances of the ECE transition economies,
1997-1999 |
17 |
1.2.3 |
GDP and industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1998-1999 |
18 |
1.2.4 |
Retail trade in selected transition economies, 1998-1999 |
19 |
1.2.5 |
Consumer prices in the transition economies, 1997-1999 |
23 |
1.2.6 |
Registered unemployment in the transition economies, 1998-1999 |
26 |
1.2.7 |
Foreign trade of the ECE transition economies by direction, 1997-1999 |
28 |
1.2.8 |
Changes in the volume of foreign trade in selected transition economies,
1995-1999 |
30 |
1.2.9 |
CIS countries’ trade with CIS and non-CIS countries, 1998-1999 |
34 |
1.2.10 |
Current account balances of the ECE transition economies, 1996-1999 |
37 |
1.2.11 |
Net capital flows into the ECE transition economies, 1996-1999 |
39 |
1.2.12 |
Foreign direct investment in the ECE transition economies, 1996-1999 |
40 |
2.1.1 |
Demographic effects on the share of state pensions in GDP and the
financing burden, 1984-2040 |
58 |
2.2.1 |
Advantages and disadvantages of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pensions |
60 |
2.2.2 |
Advantages and disadvantages of fully-funded (FF) pensions |
60 |
2.A.1 |
The fallacy of composition |
62 |
2.A.2 |
Total dependency and contribution rates under different scenarios |
64 |
4.2.1 |
Major demographic indicators in Europe, 1990-1995 |
90 |
4.2.2 |
European male life expectancy at birth, 1950-1995 |
90 |
4.3.1 |
Real GDP/NMP |
92 |
4.3.2 |
Employment |
92 |
4.3.3 |
Labour’s share of GDP/NMP, 1995 |
92 |
4.4.1 |
Changing pension economics in the Visegrad countries, 1996 |
94 |
4.4.2 |
Average retirement age, 1950 and 1990 |
95 |
4.A.1 |
Comparison of disability and retirement pensions for miners and the
population as a whole in 1996 |
103 |
4.A.2 |
Present system: result of public opinion polls, 1997 |
106 |
4.A.3 |
The new system: result of public opinion polls, 1997 |
106 |
4.A.4 |
Assessment of the current pension system, 1995 and 1997 |
106 |
| |
|
|
A.1 |
Real GDP in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
117 |
A.2 |
Real private consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies,
1984-1998 |
118 |
A.3 |
Real general government consumption expenditure in the ECE market
economies, 1984-1998 |
119 |
A.4 |
Real gross domestic fixed capital formation in the ECE market economies,
1984-1998 |
120 |
A.5 |
Real total domestic demand in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
121 |
A.6 |
Real exports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
122 |
A.7 |
Real imports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
123 |
A.8 |
Industrial output in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
124 |
A.9 |
Total employment in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
125 |
A.10 |
Standardized unemployment rates in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
126 |
A.11 |
Consumer prices in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
127 |
B.1 |
Real GDP/NMP in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
128 |
B.2 |
Real total consumption expenditure in the ECE transition economies, 1980,
1985-1998 |
129 |
B.3 |
Real gross fixed capital formation in the ECE transition economies, 1980,
1985-1998 |
129 |
B.4 |
Real gross industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1980,
1985-1998 |
130 |
B.5 |
Total employment in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
131 |
B.6 |
Registered unemployment in the ECE transition economies, 1990, 1994-1998 |
132 |
B.7 |
Consumer prices in the ECE transition economies, 1989-1998 |
133 |
B.8 |
Producer price indices in the ECE transition economies, 1989-1998 |
134 |
B.9 |
Nominal gross wages in industry in the ECE transition economies, 1990-1998 |
135 |
B.10 |
Merchandise exports of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
136 |
B.11 |
Merchandise imports of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
137 |
B.12 |
Balance of merchandise trade of the ECE transition economies, 1980,
1986-1998 |
138 |
B.13 |
Merchandise trade of the ECE transition economies by direction, 1980,
1986-1998 |
139 |
B.14 |
Exchange rates of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
140 |
B.15 |
Current account balances of the ECE transition economies, 1990-1998 |
141 |
B.16 |
Inflows of foreign direct investment in selected ECE transition economies,
1990-1998 |
142 |
LIST OF CHARTS |
| Chart |
|
Page |
1.1.1 |
World commodity prices, January 1996-September 1999 |
5 |
1.1.2 |
Changes in real GDP, 1995 QI-1999 QII |
7 |
1.1.3 |
Monthly export value indices, 1996-1999 |
7 |
1.1.4 |
Unemployment rates in major ECE market economies, January 1994-August 1999 |
9 |
1.1.5 |
Changes in consumer price indices in the euro area and the United States,
January 1996-September 1999 |
10 |
1.1.6 |
Nominal short-term and long-term interest rates, January 1997-October l999 |
11 |
1.1.7 |
Euro reference rates, January 1999-October 1999 |
12 |
1.1.8 |
Real effective exchange rates, January 1995-August 1999 |
12 |
1.2.1 |
Quarterly changes in the exports and imports of eastern Europe and the
Baltic states, 1997-1999 |
31 |
2.A.1 |
Contribution rates at different dependency ratios |
63 |
2.A.2 |
Saving rates at different dependency ratios |
63 |
3.B.1 |
Targeting of public pensions and income inequality among the elderly in
nine OECD countries |
81 |
3.B.2 |
The reformed Swedish pension system |
83 |
3.C.1 |
Number of affiliates and contributors, 1982-1997 . |
84 |
3.C.2 |
Average real returns by date of entry in Chile, 1981-1998 |
84 |
3.C.3 |
Portfolio of pension funds, 1981-1997 |
86 |
3.C.4 |
Affiliates’ transfers between managers, 1983-1997 |
87 |
3.C.5 |
Number of sales agents, 1982-1997 |
87 |
4.2.1 |
The demographic transition in Hungary, 1900-1995 |
90 |
4.2.2 |
Actual versus stationary age profiles in Hungary and Poland, 1994 |
91 |
4.4.1 |
Demographic and system dependency in Hungary, 1970-2070 |
96 |
4.A.1 |
Growth in number of pensioners for selected transition economies |
104 |
4.A.2 |
Decline in number of contributors for selected transition economies |
104 |
4.A.3 |
Change in the system dependency ratios for selected transition economies |
105 |
4.B.1 |
Forecast of numbers of retirement ages in Lithuania, 1995-2025 |
108 |
4.B.2 |
Changes in real GDP in Lithuania, 1991-1998 |
108 |
4.B.3 |
System dependency ratio of the Lithuanian social insurance pension scheme,
1991-2025 |
109 |
LIST OF BOXES |
| Box |
|
Page |
4.4.1 |
The basic arithmetic of a pension system |
93 |
4.5.1 |
Pre-reform characteristics of public PAYG pension schemes in transition
economies |
99 |