CONTENTS

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Chapter 1 POSTWAR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH-EAST EUROPE

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1.1 Introduction

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1.2 Pre-war conditions and the burden of the past

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(i) A decade of economic decline

2

(ii) South-east Europe on the eve of the Kosovo conflict

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1.3 Impact of the war

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1.4 Postwar recovery strategies

17

Chapter 2 THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ECE REGION IN MID-1999

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2.1 The global context

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2.2 The western market economies

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(i) Monetary conditions

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(ii) The short-term outlook

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2.3 Central and easten Europe and the CIS

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(i) Output and demand

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(ii) Inflation

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(iii) Unemployment

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(iv) Trade

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(v) Current account and financial developments

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(vi) Short-term outlook

50

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LIST OF TABLES

Table

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1.2.1 Employment and unemployment in the south-east European transition economies, 1996-1998

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1.2.2 Exports of selected south-east European transition economies by commodity and major partner groups, 1997

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1.2.3 Structure of current account flows in the south-east European economies, 1998

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1.2.4 Selected external financial indicators for the south-east European economies, 1998

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1.3.1 Trade of the south-east European transition economies: exports and imports by direction, 1997

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2.2.1 Real GDP in the seven major economies, 1997 QIII-1999 QI

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2.2.2 Real GDP in the developed market economies, 1996-1999

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2.3.1 Basic economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1996-1999

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2.3.2 International trade and external balances of the ECE transition economies, 1996-1998

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2.3.3 GDP and industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1998-1999

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2.3.4 Retail trade in the ECE transition economies, 1997-1999

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2.3.5 Consumer prices in the transition economies, 1997-1999

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2.3.6 Registered unemployment in the ECE transition economies, 1998-1999

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2.3.7 Trade performance and trade balances of the ECE transition economies, 1998-1999

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2.3.8 CIS countries’ trade with CIS and non-CIS countries, 1998-1999

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2.3.9 Current account balances in selected ECE transition economies, 1997-1999

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A.1 Real GDP in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.2 Real private consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.3 Real general government consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.4 Real gross domestic fixed capital formation in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.5 Real total domestic demand in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.6 Real exports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.7 Real imports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.8 Industrial output in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.9 Total employment in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.10 Standardized unemployment rates in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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A.11 Consumer prices in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998

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B.1 Real GDP/NMP in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998

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B.2 Real total consumption expenditure in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998

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B.3 Real gross fixed capital formation in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998

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B.4 Real gross industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998

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B.5 Total employment in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998

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B.6 Registered unemployment in the ECE transition economies, 1990, 1994-1998

69

B.7 Consumer prices in the ECE transition economies, 1989-1998

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B.8 Producer price indices in the ECE transition economies, 1989-1998

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B.9 Nominal gross wages in industry in the ECE transition economies, 1990-1998

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B.10 Merchandise exports of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998

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B.11 Merchandise imports of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998

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B.12 Balance of merchandise trade of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998

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B.13 Merchandise trade of the ECE transition economies by direction, 1980, 1986-1998

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B.14 Exchange rates of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998

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B.15 Current account balances of the ECE transition economies, 1990-1998

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B.16 Inflows of foreign direct investment in selected ECE transition economies, 1990-1998

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LIST OF CHARTS

Chart

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1.2.1 GDP in selected south-east European transition economies, 1989-1998

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1.2.2 GDP in selected central European transition economies, 1989-1998

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1.2.3 Average per capita GDP at PPPs in the south-east European transition economies relative to central Europe and the EU average, 1990-1998

4

2.1.1 World commodity prices, January 1997-May 1999

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2.2.1 Changes in real GDP, 1994 QI-1999 QI

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2.2.2 Changes in consumer price indices in the euro area and the United States, January 1996-April 1999

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2.2.3 Nominal interest rates, January 1997-June 1999

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2.2.4 Euro reference rates, January 1999-June 1999 .

31

2.2.5 Bilateral exchange rates, January 1996-June 1999

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LIST OF BOXES

Box

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2.3.1 Goskomstat revision of Russian unemployment

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