Content |
Page |
Explanatory
notes |
viii |
Abbreviations |
ix |
Preface |
xi |
Chapter 1 OVERVIEW
AND SELECTED POLICY ISSUES |
1 |
1.1 The current
economic situation in the ECE region |
1 |
1.2 Strong
policies and weak foundations |
4 |
(i) Unemployment |
4 |
(ii) Inflation |
5 |
(iii) Trade
liberalization |
6 |
(iv) Liberalization
of international capital flows |
7 |
(v) Conclusions |
10 |
Chapter 2 THE
GLOBAL CONTEXT AND THE SITUATION IN THE WESTERN MARKET ECONOMIES |
13 |
2.1 The global
context |
13 |
(i) The broad
pattern |
13 |
(ii) Lingering
instability in financial markets |
15 |
(iii) The crisis
in Brazil |
16 |
(iv) Recent
developments in East Asia |
17 |
2.2 The economic
situation in western Europe and North America |
19 |
(i) General
economic developments |
19 |
(ii) Monetary
conditions and fiscal policy |
32 |
(iii) The
short-term economic outlook |
35 |
2.3 The start of
EMU |
37 |
(i) Introduction |
37 |
(ii) The new
institutional framework for monetary policy |
39 |
(iii) Monetary
policy goals and strategy |
40 |
(iv) Exchange
rate policy |
43 |
(v) Domestic
economic policy coordination |
44 |
Chapter 3 THE
TRANSITION ECONOMIES |
49 |
3.1 Introduction |
49 |
(i) Expectations
and outcomes |
49 |
(ii) Short-term
outlook |
54 |
3.2 Issues in
transformation policy |
55 |
(i) Policy
challenges in the current stage of transition |
55 |
(ii) Monetary
policy |
60 |
(iii) Structure,
strain and economic adjustment: the crisis in Romania |
70 |
3.3 Output and
demand |
81 |
(i) Output |
81 |
(ii) Demand |
100 |
3.4 Costs and
prices |
110 |
(i) Introduction |
110 |
(ii) Consumer
prices |
110 |
(iii) Producer
prices in industry |
120 |
(iv) Wages, unit
labour costs and profit margins in industry |
120 |
3.5 Labour
markets |
125 |
(i) Recent
developments |
125 |
(ii) Effects of transition on the
labour force and employment from a gender perspective, 1985-1997 |
135 |
3.6 International
trade |
142 |
(i) Introduction |
142 |
(ii) Trade of
eastern Europe and the Baltic states |
143 |
(iii) Trade of
the CIS countries |
152 |
3.7 Balance of
payments and external finance |
162 |
(i) Introduction |
162 |
(ii) Current
account developments |
162 |
(iii) External
financing and FDI |
165 |
(iv) Sustainability
of current account deficits |
172 |
(v) Short-term
funds, macroeconomic instability and sustainability |
179 |
Chapter 4 FERTILITY
DECLINE IN THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES, 1982-1997: POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL FACTORS |
181 |
4.1 Introduction |
181 |
4.2 Fertility
decline to the lowest levels yet observed |
182 |
4.3 Shifts in
the age structure of fertility |
185 |
4.4 The spread
of extra-marital fertility |
186 |
4.5 Causes of
fertility decline |
187 |
(i) From
one-party rule to democracy |
187 |
(ii) From slow
growth to economic downturn |
189 |
(iii) The spread
of western behaviour |
191 |
4.6 Conclusions |
193 |
STATISTICAL
APPENDIX |
195 |
LIST OF TABLES |
Table |
Page |
2.1.1 World
commodity prices, 1995-1998 |
14 |
2.1.2 Annual
changes in real GDP in east Asian countries, 1996-1999 |
19 |
2.2.1 Real
GDP in the developed market economies, 1996-1999 |
21 |
2.2.2 Major
components of demand in the ECE market economies, 1997-1998 |
25 |
2.2.3 Total
employment in the ECE market economies, 1995-1998 |
26 |
2.2.4 Standardized
unemployment rates in the ECE market economies, 1995-1998 |
27 |
2.2.5 Consumer
price indices in ECE market economies, 1996-1998 |
29 |
2.3.1 Comparison
of economic indicators for the euro area, Japan and the United States |
38 |
2.3.2 Selected
economic indicators for the euro area |
42 |
3.1.1 Basic
economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1996-1999 |
50 |
3.1.2 International
trade and external balances of the ECE transition economies, 1996-1998 |
53 |
3.2.1 Short-term
interest rates in selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
64 |
3.2.2 Monetization
in selected transition economies: share of monetary aggregates in GDP, 1995-1998 |
65 |
3.2.3 Monetary
ratios for selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
66 |
3.2.4 Macroeconomic
indicators of Romania, 1990-1998 |
73 |
3.2.5 Fiscal
and quasi-fiscal deficits of Romania, 1993-1997 |
76 |
3.2.6 Government
revenues in selected east European economies, 1990-1996 |
80 |
3.2.7 Levels
of strain in labour market adjustment |
81 |
3.3.1 GDP
and industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1997-1998 |
83 |
3.3.2 Share
of major sectors in GDP in eastern Europe and the Baltic states, 1993-1998 |
86 |
3.3.3 Share
of major sectors in GDP in the CIS economies, 1993-1998 |
87 |
3.3.4 Growth
of industrial output by branch in eastern Europe and the Baltic states, 1997-1998 |
89 |
3.3.5 Growth
of industrial output by branch in the CIS economies, 1996-1998 |
96 |
3.3.6 Gross
output of agriculture and construction in the transition economies, 1993-1998 |
97 |
3.3.7 Contribution
of final demand components to real GDP growth in eastern Europe and the Baltic states,
1994-1998 |
101 |
3.3.8 Contribution
of final demand components to real GDP growth in selected CIS economies, 1994-1998 |
102 |
3.3.9 Composition
of final demand in current prices in selected transition economies, 1996-1998 |
105 |
3.3.10 Real
consumption in selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
106 |
3.3.11 Retail
trade in the transition economies, 1996-1998 |
107 |
3.3.12 Investment
in selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
109 |
3.4.1 Consumer
prices in the transition economies, 1997-1998 |
111 |
3.4.2 Relative
rent changes within the consumer price index in selected transition economies, 1990-1997 |
118 |
3.4.3 Producer
prices in industry in the transition economies, 1997-1998 |
120 |
3.4.4 Wages
and unit labour costs in industry in the transition economies, 1997-1998 |
121 |
3.5.1 Total
employment in transition economies, 1995-1998 |
127 |
3.5.2 Registered
unemployment in the transition economies, 1997-1998 |
129 |
3.5.3 Growth
rates of labour force and employment in selected transition economies, by sex, 1985-1997 |
136 |
3.5.4 Gender
specific labour market indicators in selected transition economies, 1985 and 1997 |
137 |
3.5.5 Share
of women in labour market indicators in selected transition economies, 1985 and 1997 |
138 |
3.5.6 Share
of women in total employment by industry in selected transition economies, 1992-1997 |
141 |
3.6.1 Trade
performance and external balances in the east European and Baltic countries, 1998 |
144 |
3.6.2 Foreign
trade of the ECE transition economies by direction, 1996-1998 |
145 |
3.6.3 Trade
balances of the ECE transition economies, 1993-1998 |
146 |
3.6.4 Changes
in the volume of foreign trade in selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
147 |
3.6.5 Effect
of Russias August 1998 market collapse on export performance in selected east
European and Baltic countries |
149 |
3.6.6 CIS
countries total trade, 1996-1998 |
153 |
3.6.7 CIS
countries trade with CIS and non-CIS, 1996-1998 |
155 |
3.6.8 Russian
Federations merchandise trade, July-November 1998 |
156 |
3.6.9 Non-CIS
trade of the Russian Federation by selected commodities, 1994-1998 |
157 |
3.6.10 CIS
countries progress in acceding to the World Trade Organization |
159 |
3.6.11 Status
of World Trade Organization accession and major outstanding bilateral issues, as of 30
September 1998 |
161 |
3.7.1 Current
account balances of eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and European members of the CIS,
1996-1998 |
163 |
3.7.2 Foreign
trade in goods and non-factor services of eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and
European members of the CIS, |
|
1996-1998 |
164 |
3.7.3 International
credit ratings of eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and the CIS |
169 |
3.7.4 Indicators
of foreign direct investment in east European, Baltic and European CIS countries,
1997-1998 |
170 |
3.7.5 Net
capital flows into eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and the European members of the
CIS, 1995-1998 |
171 |
3.7.6 Net
capital flows into eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and the European members of the
CIS, by type of capital, |
|
1996-1998 |
172 |
3.7.7 Changes
in real exchange rates and current account balances, by type of exchange rate regime,
1993-1998 |
175 |
3.7.8 Selected
external financial indicators for eastern Europe, the Baltic countries and European
members of the CIS, 1997-1998 |
177 |
A.1 Real
GDP in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
196 |
A.2 Real
private consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
197 |
A.3 Real
general government consumption expenditure in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
198 |
A.4 Real
gross domestic fixed capital formation in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
199 |
A.5 Real
total domestic demand in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
200 |
A.6 Real
exports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
201 |
A.7 Real
imports of goods and services in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
202 |
A.8 Industrial
output in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
203 |
A.9 Total
employment in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
204 |
A.10 Standardized
unemployment rates in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
205 |
A.11 Consumer
prices in the ECE market economies, 1984-1998 |
206 |
B.1 Real
GDP/NMP in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
207 |
B.2 Real
total consumption expenditure in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
208 |
B.3 Real
gross fixed capital formation in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
208 |
B.4 Real
gross industrial output in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
209 |
B.5 Total
employment in the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1985-1998 |
210 |
B.6 Registered
unemployment in the ECE transition economies, 1990, 1994-1998 |
211 |
B.7 Consumer
prices in the ECE transition economies, 1989-1998 |
212 |
B.8 Producer
price indices in the ECE transition economies, 1989-1998 |
213 |
B.9 Nominal
gross wages in industry in the ECE transition economies, 1990-1998 |
214 |
B.10 Merchandise
exports of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
215 |
B.11 Merchandise
imports of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
216 |
B.12 Balance
of merchandise trade of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
217 |
B.13 Merchandise
trade of the ECE transition economies by direction, 1980, 1986-1998 |
218 |
B.14 Exchange
rates of the ECE transition economies, 1980, 1986-1998 |
219 |
B.15 Current
account balances of the ECE transition economies, 1990-1998 |
220 |
B.16 Inflows
of foreign direct investment in selected ECE transition economies, 1990-1998 |
221 |
LIST OF CHARTS |
Chart |
Page |
2.1.1 Changes
in world output, 1990-1999 |
14 |
2.1.2 Changing
forecasts of world output growth, 1998-2000 |
14 |
2.1.3 Changes
in international energy and non-energy commodity prices, 1970-1998 |
15 |
2.1.4 International
share prices, January 1994-February 1999 |
16 |
2.1.5 The
exchange rate of the yen against the dollar, January 1994-February 1999 |
18 |
2.2.1 Quarterly
changes in real GDP, 1995-1998 |
20 |
2.2.2 Business
cycle indicators for the European Union and the United States, January 1994-February 1999 |
22 |
2.2.3 Manufacturing
output and capacity utilization in the euro area and the United States, January
1996-January 1999 |
23 |
2.2.4 Quarterly
changes in real GDP and major demand components in western Europe, 1995-1998 |
24 |
2.2.5 Changes
in total employment in industrialized countries, 1990-1998 . |
27 |
2.2.6 Unemployment
rates in industrialized countries, 1990-1998 |
28 |
2.2.7 Inflation
in four major European countries, 1994-1998 |
28 |
2.2.8 Inflation
rate differentials in the euro area, 1996-1998 |
29 |
2.2.9 Quarterly
changes in real GDP and major demand components in the United States, 1995-1998 |
30 |
2.2.10 Inflation
in the United States, 1994-1998 |
31 |
2.2.11 Nominal
interest rates, January 1997-March 1999 |
33 |
2.2.12 Euro
reference rates, January 1999-March 1999 |
34 |
3.2.1 Nominal
and real lending rates in selected transition economies, 1996-1998 |
69 |
3.2.2
Remonetization vs. demonetization in Romania, 1994-1998 |
75 |
3.3.1 Gross
industrial output in selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
84 |
3.3.2 Volume
of retail sales in selected transition economies, 1996-1998 |
91 |
3.4.1 Consumer
price of food, non-food goods and services in selected transition economies, 1995-1998 |
116 |
3.4.2 Average
annual rate of change in GDP and consumer prices in selected transition economies,
1993-1998 |
119 |
3.4.3 Real
product wages and unit labour costs in selected transition economies, 1993-1998 |
123 |
3.4.4 Average
annual rate of change in industrial production and real unit labour costs in selected
transition economies, 1995-1998 |
125 |
3.5.1 Registered
unemployment rates in selected transition economies, 1993-1998 |
130 |
3.5.2 Registered
and labour force survey unemployment rates in selected transition economies, 1998-QII |
134 |
3.5.3 Relationship
between registered and survey-based unemployment rates in selected transition economies,
1998-QII |
134 |
3.5.4 Unemployment
rate, share of women, youth and long-term unemployed in total unemployment in selected
transition economies, 1998-QIII |
135 |
3.5.5 Relative
total and gender specific employment growth index by sectors in selected transition
countries, 1992-1997 |
139 |
3.6.1 Specific
western demand for selected transition economies exports, 1994-1999 |
143 |
3.6.2 Quarterly
changes in east European and Baltic exports and imports, 1997-1998 |
148 |
3.6.3 Changes
in east European and Baltic exports by commodity, 1993-1998 |
150 |
3.7.1 Real
exchange rates based on unit labour costs for selected transition economies, 1994-1998 |
166 |
3.7.2 Premia
on selected transition economy bonds, September 1997-February 1999 |
168 |
3.7.3 Net
capital inflows into eastern Europe and the Baltic states, by type of capital, 1997-1998 |
173 |
4.2.1 Shifts
in total fertility rate, 1982-1996 |
183 |
4.2.2 Total
fertility rate, 1980 and 1996 |
184 |
4.2.3 Trends
in total fertility rate in selected transition economies, 1982-1996 |
185 |
4.3.1 Shifts
in mean age of childbearing, 1982-1995 |
186 |
4.4.1 Shifts
in proportion of non-marital births, 1982-1996 |
187 |
4.5.1 Changes
in the number of monthly births and 11-month moving averages in the former German
Democratic amd R Republic and Romania, 1982-1996 |
189 |
4.5.2 Relationship
between total fertility rate and net material product/gross domestic product, 1985-1997 |
190 |
4.5.3 Relationship
between mean age of childbearing and the proportion of non-marital births in selected
market economies, 1965-1996 |
191 |
4.5.4 Relationship
between mean age of childbearing and the proportion of non-marital births in selected
transition economies, 1965-1995 |
192 |
LIST OF BOXES |
Box |
Page |
2.3.1 Exchange
rate target zones for major currencies |
45 |
3.5.1 Goskomstat
revision of Russian unemployment |
132 |