TABLE 3.1.1
Basic economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1995-1998
(Rates of change and shares, per cent)
| |
GDP (growth rates) |
Industrial output
(growth rates) |
Inflation (per cent
change, Dec./Dec.) |
Unemployment rate
(end of period, per cent) |
| |
|
|
1997 |
|
| |
1995 |
1996 |
Ex-ante forecast |
Actual outcome |
1998 forecast |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
| Eastern
Europe |
5.9 |
4.1 |
3½ |
2.8 |
4½ |
8.0 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
12.5 |
11.8 |
11.6 |
| Albania |
8.0 |
9.1 |
.. |
-7* |
12 |
-7.2 |
13.6 |
-5.6 |
6.0 |
17.4 |
42.0 |
13.1 |
12.1 |
13.4a |
| Bosnia
and Herzegovina b |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
60.8 |
87.3 |
35.1 |
-34.2 |
3.2 |
12.2 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
| Bulgaria |
2.1 |
-10.9 |
-(2-4) |
-7.4 |
3 |
9.1 |
-8.3 |
-7* |
33.0 |
311.1 |
578.7 |
11.1 |
12.5 |
13.7 |
| Croatia |
7.1 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
5 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
6.8 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
17.6 |
15.9 |
17.6 |
| Czech
Republic |
5.9 |
4.1 |
4-5 |
1.3 |
1.6-2.2 |
8.7 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
9.9 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
5.2 |
| Hungary |
1.5 |
1.3 |
2 |
4.0 |
4 |
4.5 |
3.4 |
11.1 |
28.5 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
10.4 |
10.5 |
10.4 |
| Poland |
7.0 |
6.1 |
5-6 |
6.9 |
5.6-5.8 |
9.7 |
8.3 |
11.3 |
22.0 |
18.7 |
13.2 |
14.9 |
13.2 |
10.5 |
| Romania |
7.1 |
4.1 |
-2 |
-6.6 |
– |
9.4 |
9.9 |
-5.9 |
27.7 |
56.8 |
151.7 |
9.5 |
6.3 |
8.8 |
| Slovakia |
7.3 |
6.9 |
6 |
6.5 |
5 |
8.3 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
7.4 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
13.1 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
| Slovenia |
4.1 |
3.1 |
4 |
3.3 |
3.5-4 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
8.6 |
8.8 |
9.5 |
14.5 |
14.4 |
14.8 |
The
former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia |
-1.2 |
0.7 |
.. |
.. |
5 |
-10.8 |
3.1 |
1c |
11.2 |
0.3 |
4.5 |
37.2 |
39.8 |
42.4c |
| Yugoslavia d |
6.1 |
5.9 |
13 |
7.4 |
10 |
3.8 |
7.5 |
9.5 |
110.7 |
59.9 |
10.3 |
24.7 |
26.1 |
25.6 |
| Baltic
states |
2.1 |
3.7 |
4½ |
6.5 |
6 |
1.3 |
4.6 |
5.8 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
| Estonia |
4.3 |
4.0 |
4-5 |
9 |
5.5-6 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
13.4 |
28.8 |
14.9 |
12.3 |
5.0 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
| Latvia |
-0.8 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
5-6 |
-3.7 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
23.3 |
13.2 |
7.0 |
6.6 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
| Lithuania |
3.0 |
4.2 |
5 |
5.0 |
7 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
0.7 |
35.5 |
13.1 |
8.5 |
7.3 |
6.2 |
6.7 |
| CIS |
-5.5 |
-4.4 |
.. |
0.7 |
.. |
-5.9 |
-2.8 |
2.3 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
5.8 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
| Armenia |
6.9 |
5.8 |
.. |
3.0 |
5-6 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
32.0 |
5.6 |
21.8 |
8.1 |
9.7 |
11.0 |
| Azerbaijan |
-11.8 |
1.3 |
.. |
5.8 |
.. |
-17.2 |
-6.7 |
0.3 |
84.5 |
6.8 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
| Belarus |
-10.4 |
2.8 |
5 |
10.4 |
7-8 |
-11.7 |
3.5 |
17.6 |
244.2 |
39.1 |
63.4 |
2.7 |
4.0 |
2.8 |
| Georgia |
2.6 |
8.6 |
.. |
11.3 |
11-13 |
-9.8 |
7.7 |
8.1 |
57.4 |
13.6 |
7.3 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
| Kazakhstan |
-8.2 |
0.5 |
2 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
-8.2 |
0.3 |
4.0 |
60.4 |
28.6 |
11.3 |
2.1 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
| Kyrgyzstan |
-5.4 |
7.1 |
.. |
10.4 |
7 |
-17.8 |
8.8 |
46.8 |
31.9 |
35.0 |
14.7 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
3.1 |
| Republic
of Moldova e |
-1.9 |
-7.8 |
5-7 |
1.3 |
.. |
-3.9 |
-6.5 |
-2.3 |
23.8 |
15.1 |
11.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
| Russian
Federation |
-4.1 |
-4.9 |
0-2 |
0.4 |
1.2-2 |
-3.3 |
-4.0 |
1.9 |
131.4 |
21.8 |
11.0 |
8.9 |
9.3 |
9.0 |
| Tajikistan |
-12.4 |
-16.7 |
.. |
1.7 |
.. |
-13.6 |
-23.9 |
-2.5 |
2 382.2 |
40.6 |
159.9 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
| Turkmenistan |
-7.7 |
0.1 |
.. |
-20* |
.. |
-6.4 |
17.9 |
-35* |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
| Ukraine |
-12.2 |
-10.0 |
– |
-3.0 |
0.5 |
-12.0 |
-5.1 |
-1.8 |
181.7 |
39.7 |
10.1 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
| Uzbekistan |
-0.9 |
1.7 |
.. |
5.2 |
6 |
0.1 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
| Total
above |
-1.3 |
-1.0 |
.. |
1.7 |
.. |
-1.6 |
0.2 |
3.6 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
7.5 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
| Memorandum
items: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CETE-5 |
5.9 |
5.1 |
4½ |
5.4 |
5 |
8.5 |
6.1 |
8.9 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
12.0 |
11.3 |
9.9 |
| SETE-7 |
5.9 |
2.1 |
.. |
-3.0 |
3 |
6.7 |
5.1 |
-2.5 |
.. |
.. |
.. |
13.7 |
12.5 |
14.2 |
| Ex-GDR
Länder |
5.2 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2 |
5.8 |
4.6 |
6.7 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
14.9 |
15.9 |
19.4 |
Source:National
statistics, CIS Statistical Committee and direct communications from national statistical
offices to UN/ECE secretariat (IMF and World Bank data for Albania).
Note: Aggregates are UN/ECE secretariat
computations, based on previous period weights at 1992 prices. Output measures are in real
terms (constant prices). Forecasts are those of national conjunctural institutes or
government forecasts associated with the central budget formulation. Industrial output
refers to gross output, not the contribution of industry to GDP. Inflation refers to
changes in the consumer price index. Unemployment generally refers to registered
unemployment at the end of the period (with the exception of the Russian Federation where
it is the Goskomstat estimate according to ILO definition and Estonia where it refers to
job seekers). Aggregates shown are: Eastern Europe (the 12 countries below that
line), with sub-aggregates CETE-5 (central European transition economies: Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) and SETE-7 (south European
transition economies: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, The
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Yugoslavia); Baltic states (Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania); CIS (12 member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent
States); and total transition countries.
a June.
b Data reported by the
Statistical Office of the Federation; these exclude the area of Republika Srpska.
c November.
d Gross material
product instead of GDP.
e Excluding
Transnistria.