TABLE 3.1.1

Basic economic indicators for the ECE transition economies, 1995-1998
(Rates of change and shares, per cent)
 

GDP (growth rates)

Industrial output
(growth rates)

Inflation (per cent change, Dec./Dec.)

Unemployment rate
(end of period, per cent)
     

1997

  
 

1995

1996

Ex-ante forecast

Actual outcome

1998 forecast

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997
Eastern Europe

5.9

4.1

3½

2.8

4½

8.0

5.8

5.7

..

..

..

12.5

11.8

11.6
Albania

8.0

9.1

..

-7*

12

-7.2

13.6

-5.6

6.0

17.4

42.0

13.1

12.1

13.4a
Bosnia and Herzegovina b

..

..

..

..

..

60.8

87.3

35.1

-34.2

3.2

12.2

..

..

..
Bulgaria

2.1

-10.9

-(2-4)

-7.4

3

9.1

-8.3

-7*

33.0

311.1

578.7

11.1

12.5

13.7
Croatia

7.1

6.0

5.5

6.5

5

0.3

3.1

6.8

3.7

3.5

4.0

17.6

15.9

17.6
Czech Republic

5.9

4.1

4-5

1.3

1.6-2.2

8.7

1.8

2.3

7.9

8.7

9.9

2.9

3.5

5.2
Hungary

1.5

1.3

2

4.0

4

4.5

3.4

11.1

28.5

20.0

18.4

10.4

10.5

10.4
Poland

7.0

6.1

5-6

6.9

5.6-5.8

9.7

8.3

11.3

22.0

18.7

13.2

14.9

13.2

10.5
Romania

7.1

4.1

-2

-6.6

–

9.4

9.9

-5.9

27.7

56.8

151.7

9.5

6.3

8.8
Slovakia

7.3

6.9

6

6.5

5

8.3

2.4

2.7

7.4

5.5

6.5

13.1

12.8

12.5
Slovenia

4.1

3.1

4

3.3

3.5-4

2.0

1.0

1.3

8.6

8.8

9.5

14.5

14.4

14.8
The former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia

-1.2

0.7

..

..

5

-10.8

3.1

1c

11.2

0.3

4.5

37.2

39.8

42.4c
Yugoslavia d

6.1

5.9

13

7.4

10

3.8

7.5

9.5

110.7

59.9

10.3

24.7

26.1

25.6
Baltic states

2.1

3.7

4½

6.5

6

1.3

4.6

5.8

..

..

..

6.5

6.4

6.3
Estonia

4.3

4.0

4-5

9

5.5-6

1.9

2.9

13.4

28.8

14.9

12.3

5.0

5.6

4.6
Latvia

-0.8

2.8

3.5

6.0

5-6

-3.7

5.5

6.1

23.3

13.2

7.0

6.6

7.2

6.7
Lithuania

3.0

4.2

5

5.0

7

5.3

5.0

0.7

35.5

13.1

8.5

7.3

6.2

6.7
CIS

-5.5

-4.4

..

0.7

..

-5.9

-2.8

2.3

..

..

..

5.8

6.2

6.2
Armenia

6.9

5.8

..

3.0

5-6

1.5

1.2

1.0

32.0

5.6

21.8

8.1

9.7

11.0
Azerbaijan

-11.8

1.3

..

5.8

..

-17.2

-6.7

0.3

84.5

6.8

0.3

1.1

1.1

1.3
Belarus

-10.4

2.8

5

10.4

7-8

-11.7

3.5

17.6

244.2

39.1

63.4

2.7

4.0

2.8
Georgia

2.6

8.6

..

11.3

11-13

-9.8

7.7

8.1

57.4

13.6

7.3

3.4

3.2

2.6
Kazakhstan

-8.2

0.5

2

2.0

3.5

-8.2

0.3

4.0

60.4

28.6

11.3

2.1

4.1

3.9
Kyrgyzstan

-5.4

7.1

..

10.4

7

-17.8

8.8

46.8

31.9

35.0

14.7

3.0

4.5

3.1
Republic of Moldova e

-1.9

-7.8

5-7

1.3

..

-3.9

-6.5

-2.3

23.8

15.1

11.1

1.4

1.5

1.7
Russian Federation

-4.1

-4.9

0-2

0.4

1.2-2

-3.3

-4.0

1.9

131.4

21.8

11.0

8.9

9.3

9.0
Tajikistan

-12.4

-16.7

..

1.7

..

-13.6

-23.9

-2.5

2 382.2

40.6

159.9

1.8

2.4

2.8
Turkmenistan

-7.7

0.1

..

-20*

..

-6.4

17.9

-35*

..

..

..

..

..

..
Ukraine

-12.2

-10.0

–

-3.0

0.5

-12.0

-5.1

-1.8

181.7

39.7

10.1

0.6

1.5

2.8
Uzbekistan

-0.9

1.7

..

5.2

6

0.1

6.0

6.5

..

..

..

0.3

0.3

0.3
Total above

-1.3

-1.0

..

1.7

..

-1.6

0.2

3.6

..

..

..

7.5

7.8

7.7
Memorandum items:                            
CETE-5

5.9

5.1

4½

5.4

5

8.5

6.1

8.9

..

..

..

12.0

11.3

9.9
SETE-7

5.9

2.1

..

-3.0

3

6.7

5.1

-2.5

..

..

..

13.7

12.5

14.2
Ex-GDR Länder

5.2

1.9

1.0

1.6

2

5.8

4.6

6.7

2.6

1.6

2.3

14.9

15.9

19.4

Source: National statistics, CIS Statistical Committee and direct communications from national statistical offices to UN/ECE secretariat (IMF and World Bank data for Albania).
Note: Aggregates are UN/ECE secretariat computations, based on previous period weights at 1992 prices. Output measures are in real terms (constant prices). Forecasts are those of national conjunctural institutes or government forecasts associated with the central budget formulation. Industrial output refers to gross output, not the contribution of industry to GDP. Inflation refers to changes in the consumer price index. Unemployment generally refers to registered unemployment at the end of the period (with the exception of the Russian Federation where it is the Goskomstat estimate according to ILO definition and Estonia where it refers to job seekers). Aggregates shown are: Eastern Europe (the 12 countries below that line), with sub-aggregates CETE-5 (central European transition economies: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) and SETE-7 (south European transition economies: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Yugoslavia); Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania); CIS (12 member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States); and total transition countries.
a June.
b Data reported by the Statistical Office of the Federation; these exclude the area of Republika Srpska.
c November.
d Gross material product instead of GDP.
e Excluding Transnistria.