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ForFITS Model - Assessing Future CO2 Emissions

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The development of ForFITS was a three-year activity started in 2011 with the goal of enhancing international cooperation and planning towards sustainable transport policies, with a particular aim of facilitating climate change mitigation. The project was funded by the UN Development Agency (UNDA) and it involved all United Nations Regional Commissions.

The model is meant to foster sustainable transport policies For Future Inland Transport Systems (and therefore named ForFITS), and is capable of assisting users in making informed decisions about measures available for the reduction of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. Users of the tool can compare the projections between a baseline scenario and scenario where proposed transport policies are implemented and estimate the amount of emissions that can be "saved" by their implementation in the future. Results of these analyses can be used to support the implementation of future transport policies that are likely to be effective in reducing CO2 emissions.

ForFITS model

ForFITS is primarily focused on CO2 emissions from inland transport, including road, rail and inland waterways, and predicts future emissions based on current patterns. CO2 emissions from aviation and maritime transport are also covered by ForFITS, but in a simplified manner in comparison to the other transport modes.

The model is suitable for the analysis of transport systems having a regional, national and/or local dimension, with a primary focus on national systems.

ForFITS and its user manual are freely available through the links below.

The modelling environment selected for the development of this tool is Vensim. The ForFITS model includes a Vensim Packaged Model file (.vpm), coupled with a Microsof Excel file (.xls).

The latest version of both these files can be downloaded here:

VPM file

Excel file

The Vensim Model Reader, a software allowing to run the ForFITS model, is freely downloadable here (selecting the Model Reader option): http://vensim.com/free-download/

 

Relevant documentation, including details on the methodology behind the modelling approach; the model structure, giving information on each calculation step; the input data required, including explanations on how to use the input file; and instructions on how to perform model runs, illustrating how to visualize the results and extract them from the software application which hosts ForFITS are available in the English version of the user manual below.

For further instructions on the use of the ForFITS model and information on its characteristics, please contact UNECE directly (see the contact tab).

ForFITS - User manual

General description

A - Coverage, methodology and data requirements

B - Vensim Packaged Model (VPM) file

      Description of the views

      01 - economic parameters

      02 - demand (passenger, main drivers)

      03 - demand (passenger, non-motorized transport)

      04 - demand (passenger personal motor road)

      05 - demand (passenger personal vessels)

      06 - demand (passenger, public)

      07 - demand (passenger, air)

      08 - demand (large-freight, gdp & structure)

      09 - demand (large-freight, tkm)

      10 - demand (light road freight vehicle shares)

      11 - demand (freight)

      12 - demand (freight, travel and load by mode)

      13 - vehicles, new registrations (historical, input)

      14 - vehicles, new registrations (historical)

      15 - vehicles by age

      16 - vehicles, powertrain shares (input)

      17 - vehicle cost (input)

      18 - vehicles, powertrain choice (logit)

      19 - travel per vehicle (passenger)

      20 - travel per vehicle (freight)

      21 - travel per vehicle

      22 - travel per vehicle by age

      23 - cost of fuel

      24 - cost of vehicles

      25 - cost of crew

      26 - cost of driving

      27 - load (passenger)

      28 - load (freight)

      29 - activity, loads and stock aggregates

      30 - activity, loads and stock by age

      31 - energy consumption (historical, input)

      32 - energy consumption (historical)

      33 - energy consumption (new registrations, ratios) (region, input)

      34 - energy consumption (new registrations) (region)

      35 - energy consumption (new registrations) (area)

      36 - energy consumption by age

      37 - CO2 emissions

      38 - costs

      39 - outputs (vehicle stock)

      40 - outputs (activity)

      41 - outputs (energy use)

      42 - outputs (cost)

      43 - outputs (well-to-tank CO2 emissions)

      44 - outputs (tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions)

      45 - outputs (well-to-wheel CO2 emissions)

      46 - outputs (new registrations)

C - Excel interface

D - Using ForFITS

The pilot report builds on the application of the model to seven pilot countries: Chile, Ethiopia, France, Hungary, Montenegro, Thailand and Tunisia. The development of each pilot in terms of data gathering, definition of scenarios, model runs and analysis of the results is described in the report. The last chapter contains a set of suggestions for the definition of transport policies having implications for climate change mitigation, leveraging on the results of the pilot runs and a comparative assessment between them. 

After the completion of the first phase of the project at the end of 2013, an international consultant was engaged to evaluate its post-implementation performance.  The evaluation was conducted on the basis of a desk review of all the relevant documents and more specifically an in-depth review of the development of the ForFITS model under the project. The evaluation report summarizes the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the evaluation.

Africa

Awareness raising workshop
31 October 2013 - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Technical workshop (Ethiopia pilot case)
1-2 November 2013 - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Asia-Pacific

Awareness raising workshop
26-27 September 2013 - Bangkok, Thailand

Technical workshop (Thailand pilot case)
23-24 September 2013 - Bangkok, Thailand

Europe

Awareness raising workshop
13 September 2013 - Geneva, Switzerland

Technical workshops (France & Montenegro pilot cases)
8-10 October 2013 - Geneva, Switzerland
19-20 November 2013 - Pogdorica, Montenegro

Pilot case of Hungary

Latin America and the Caribbeans

Awareness raising and technical workshops (Chile pilot case)
5-28 August 2013 - Santiago, Chile

West Asia

Awareness raising workshop
2-3 December 2013 - Hammamet, Tunisia

Technical workshop (Tunisia pilot case)
3-4 December 2013 - Hammamet, Tunisia

2008

The UNECE Transport Division called on the UN Development Account (UNDA) for funds to build this project together with all UN Regional Commissions

2009

The UN General Assembly endorsed the project

2010

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) approved a Project Document describing in detail the major phases and activities of this three-year project

2011

Official project launched during a video conference involving all UN Regional Commissions

2011

Preparation of a global review on existing statistical data, policy measures and assessment tools concerning CO2 emissions in transport

2011

Development and distribution of a questionnaire (available in Arabic, English, French, German, Russian and Spanish) to provide inputs for the preparation of the review

2012

International Expert Meeting (IEM) to disseminate information on the project, to share experiences and to explore possible synergies with other stakeholders

2012

Workshop with selected experts to gather comments on the review on statistics, mitigation polices, and modelling tools (released in a draft version in April 2012 and finalized in October 2012) and to receive feedback on a draft methodology of the ForFITS tool (released in April 2012)

2012

Model development and release of the first model prototype

2013

Finalization of the model development

2013

Preparation of user manual and training materials

2013

Capacity-building workshops and training activities for policymakers and technical experts in all the regions associated with the UN Regional Commissions

The tasks and responsibilities of the lead entity and the other Regional Commissions have been finalized and included in specific Terms of References